Balance,
As usual a good and interesting post. You raise many of the questions that have led to the current set of endless speculations here.
For what it is worth, and to clear MY mind, I am going to try to answer those that I think I have answers for. I realize that most of your questions were rhetorical, and that many of my answers are what you think. Warning, my approach is from a no Enron, no Ghawar, and no conspiracy point of view, except for the normal stuff from Sinopec, LOL.
"why didn't they tell us the specific type of gas found in each drill?"
I take them at their word, they released, perhaps naively, the specifics Sinopec said they could.
" Why did the drills take 1/2 the time as OBO?"
After all the speculation about 2nd and 3rd wells that I believed were possible at the time, I finally came to believe the explanation posted by someone here, can't remember who,(appologies) from a connection to Chevron. It was a detailed explanation of a problem that required them to back out and start over.
"Why was ERHC quick to point out they drilled to the depth they "had to" drill to"?
LOL, they read this board and wanted to quell rumors that they stopped short to avoid finding oil.
" Why did Gralla indicate he believed elephants were present?"
"He did, and does.
"Why did David Bovell lie about his $10 comment (did he forget it was taped??)
Don't think he lied. I think he simply forgot. I do think it was off the cuff, not prompted by any conversation with SEO. My guess is, given the surprise drilling results, mostly gas finds, he thinks that five bucks is more appropriate now.
"Why wasn't this meeting webcasted?"
This one is easy. They were worried about shareholder back lash, which they got.
"Why didn't they file an 8K on this new information? "
Not sure about this one, perhaps they did not feel they had to and knew it was negative?
"Why did DK lie and state it was all information from December....though it included the Oki East drill information which wasn't drilled yet?"
I don't think he lied. My guess is he has been badgered so much that he finally made a mistake. I do think this kind of a mistake leads to speculation.
"Why didn't we have more selling that 1% after being informed they only found gas?"
Most shareholders understood it was a poor time to panic and sell. They understood and understand this company is still a good bet to go 10 to 20x.
"Why has there been only about a 1.5% exchange of the O/S since this "pizz poor" drilling result news was released?
Same answer.
"Why is Total interested in Block 1 if its not commercial?"
This one is a no brainer. The only explanation I can think of is it IS commercial, particularly for Total.
"Why did Prazeres report oil found in blocks 3 and 4 in "expected quantities"?"
This guy has the same approach as Mark's source at the JDA. Kind of a Chamber of Commerce, everything is great, bring you money approach. He put his own positive spin on things. I like hearing his stuff, but increasingly it needs to put it in perspective. I think he heard a report that told of massive gas finds, and was optimistic about oil being there. The Chamber slipped in the expected amounts.
"Why did ERHC management stop talking with shareholders?"
They went quiet when the surprise results were coming in. Peter's smiling face on those videos started to look to the lawyers like an invitation to legal action.
Balance, I did see the Total video you posted, that is an incredible supper computer. In Total's negotiation for block one, I am sure they have received all the data that Chevron has, and I am sure they have run it through their own annalists. Block one at least is commercial for Total.
Midtier is clearly correct about SNP not being capable of this kind of development. One of SNP's engineers stated exactly that in one of Total's films about AKPO. After stating SNP was there for the oil he went on to say they also were there to learn how to do this kind of a project by working with Total engineers. I am convinced that will continue in block one, and the rest of the blocks if Total can acquire significant percentages. Doesn't have to be high, their percentage of AKPO is significant but relatively small for an operator.
Total has a huge and very efficient machine in place right next door in exactly this kind of development. Their exploration phase is winding down. They are not going to dismantle with a perfect project continuation on their doorstep. Which of Midtier's capable companies can compete with that? And how can it not be clear what happens next?
Midtier, I agree that HDY's entry into their version of "marginal fields" was a disaster. I also dislike the idea of sharing the assets we are here for, and the dilution that will reduce our stake by 10-20%. Although I think our chances in the GOG are better than HDY's were, given our connections to Nigerian power players. The risks involved are still significant, the dilution will be significant, and I think we can raise the cash we may need through farm outs of EEZ acreage long before our cash is short.
EHRE is serious about marginal field development, and if they can they will issue new shares on the AIM to accomplish it. I too would prefer that it does not work out, though it will not cause me to sell.
In conclusion, it is clear to me that Total is coming. The JDZ will be developed eventually, and current share prices have got me buying. I have to put up with few warts, but there you go.
db
