I (sincerely) think things don't look bad
One moth ago we (at least me) never heard the possibility of having an Examiner, until aprox. April 7th. Susman raised this possibility.
After that, THJMW approved the motion to hold a Hearing to address the issue. She could have rejected the request of the Hearing just saying some of the same things yesterday she argued like Discovery made by the Debtors had already generated sufficient documentation and so on but she agreed with the Hearing for the Examiner issue.
I think this has been a warning for Debtors / Rosen / JPM / FDIC, which have been caught with their pants down and completely off-side. Just take a look at the poor Rosen's argument (a 500 bucks per hour lawyer). I think it was a 'veiled' message to the Debtors / Rosen / JPM / FDIC in order to reach a comprehensive agreement with all parties, including the EC. It's also called Global Settlement.
I have understood the following message:
"Look, gentlemen, we have arrived at this Hearing to request an Examiner; even with the support of the UST. We can do it by hook or by crook. Please give it a try the nice way, give the EC all the documentation requested or we will do it the hard way."
I believe that all parties (Debtors, JPM, FDIC) were shitting on their pants, as we also have seen some claims looking somewhat desperate (Chapter 11 to Chapter 7 status change for example). I have no doubt that aproving an Examiner would have screwed up any chance of settlement, because the Examiner could start finding really dirty things in there, and it would be a no-return-point. The same point as why does THJMW rule on the 4 billion issue.
I do not know, I still think we are at the same point or even better than a month ago. In fact my fear has been the same since March 12th; what will happen if all parties sign the POR, will THJMW accept ir or not?
I honestly do not think She is going to accept it, unless the EC see with their own eyes all the data. Yesterday they argued that they had been given 46,000 pages from over 7 million pages of documentation available. That is not even 1% of all the documentation! I hope Susman request a copy of all documentation and if he doesn't have it in 1 week he may complain to the judge ... he didn't have this benefit before when he just arrived, even in he was supposed to, but now THJMW explicitly ordered that. We really are are in a better position.
On the other hand I jsut keep asking myself the same questions:
- Why does THJMW request and approve an EC and say that she does not see the Debtors 'Hopelessly insolvent'?
- Why did she aprove a Hearing to treat the Examiner issue and after that she denies it? She could just have denied the motion to have the Hearing. in fact I think she wanted this Hearing held to give an advice to all (non-EC) parties.
- Why grant the Shareholders meeting then if you are going to cancel Equity? It doesn't make sense to me.
- (this one is my favourite) Why Wamu debt has been paid to more than 100% of its face value? -> For me it's the biggest proof that indeed, there is more money.
I do not know, I still think that this judge is doing everything strategically well, tying all the threads without any possibility of having anything loose. Now if Susman complains about not having cooperation from WMI and he re-applies for an Examiner, there would be no reason to deny it, but that would mean WAR HAS BEGUN.
What will happen if all parties sign the POR? this is the same question and risk as in March 12th... What has changed?
