What I'm about to write will be very unpopular and I expect to be torched (or ignored) as the board idiot.
Over the years I have always believed that we should listen to the customers - what do consumers want and need? The US automobile manufacturers in the '70s actually believed the consumer would buy what they produced. They got fat, arrogant, and the Japanese automobile manufacturers ate their lunch (and dinner). When the hegemony is broken is forces the gorilla to change or risk become extinct. I believe we are at that point with some of the OEMs.
I think the WSJ article below is dead-on the mark. Listen to what the CUSTOMERS in that article are saying. Content is Queen and the customer is King. Only the arrogant think the customer will buy because they have no choice. I believe in the freedom of choice.
Please notice the importance of viruses and ease of use in this article.
I submit to the board that the giant OEMs lack nimbleness and responsiveness and they have taken the marketplace for granted. As a result, I believe, they have lost touch with what consumers want. They don't hear the agony of the customer. As a result, trusted computing has slogged along (and us with it).
The OEMs believe they have the power to tell consumers what they want. They only have it as long as we give it to them and their is no other choice in the marketspace.
I have been watching this trusted computing space 'evolve' for YEARS now with folks like Lark Allen and SKS leading the evolution.
The delay has been costly to the end-users. Listen to their cries below. How many of you reading this have experienced this agony? In my opinion, trusted computing is the only initiative that can stop the hemorrhage. It ain't over by a long shot, BUT competition is good and I posit that this WSJ article underlines what will have more to do with TPM deployment than anything else - competition. Yes, competition is good...
iPod "halo" effect according to WSJ...
REAL TIME EXCHANGE
By TIM HANRAHAN AND JASON FRY
Readers Weigh In on Apple
And Possibility of 'Halo Effect'
December 23, 2004
In Monday's column, we predicted that the combination of the iPod's popularity and the increasing worry over viruses, security holes and spyware in Windows PCs will lead to the second coming of Apple Computer as a home-computing power.
To say that struck a chord would be putting it mildly. Boy, did we ever get mail -- including a significant number of people who said that the iPod, Windows security concerns or a combination of the two had made them switch to a Mac or plan to do so. We also got letter from readers who disagreed with our hypothesis.
On to the letters, some of which have been edited. You can always drop us a line at realtime@wsj.com2 -- comments will be posted here in Real Time Exchange on Thursdays. Thanks to everybody who wrote in. Remember: If you don't want your comments considered for Real Time Exchange, please make that clear.
* * *
You want your halo effect? Here's your halo effect. (Note to Apple: People named Michael seem particularly willing to switch.)
Michael D. Sullivan writes: Our household is solidly Windows-centric, with five Windows XP systems in place. We've never had an Apple computer. In the past year, we have bought four iPods (one to replace a stolen one), and I wouldn't be surprised if Santa brought a fifth one. The free iTunes software for Windows is the best advertising Apple could want. It's easy to use and intuitive, unlike much of the Windows software from other companies. Our three iPod users use iTunes, of course -- but so do I, the lone non-iPod user. It's much better than the alternatives from Nero and Microsoft for my purposes. As a result, I have been much more open to Apple computers than I was before. My wife is getting an iBook for Christmas, and we will consider Apple computers when we replace our Windows machines. The iPod has successfully breached the Windows-centrism of our family.
Michael P. Walton writes: As a lifelong Windows user, I was tired of the constant barrage of viruses and spyware. It got to the point where I felt like I needed to be a programmer to keep my Windows PC operational. After receiving an iPod as a gift, I was inspired to research other Apple products. In the last two months I've purchased an iMac G5 for my office and an eMac for home, both replacing Windows machines. I'm amazed at the elegance, simplicity and ease of use of these products.
Michael Borch writes: I have four kids and four iPods, including my own. I also own a Sony camera and video products and am increasingly frustrated by their inability to talk to my H-P PCs. (I own three of those.) Just yesterday I made the decision to buy an Apple laptop to marry the music and the video components.
Gary Bradt writes: I am a 48-year-old life-long PC guy who made the switch to Apple this year because PC Armageddon is here: Despite diligently loading it with antivirus, antispyware, antieverything protection, my PC flailed and crashed as consistently and reliably as those balsa gliders that I made as a kid. I've made the switch to Apple, I'm happy, and I'm never going back. I should add that my 13-year-old daughter and most of her friends have an iPod at the top of their Christmas lists this year. These are the same kids who will be computer consumers in the very near future.
Rick Duffy writes: Last year when I purchased a new PC I gave serious consideration to buying an Apple. The cost was the major hurdle for me at the time. Since then I have used iTunes for ripping and organizing my CD collection and with my new iPod Mini under my Christmas tree I'll get even closer to Apple. I have three-year-old twins who will soon be learning how to use a computer, and I feel my home network will be safer with the kids using a Mac vs. a PC. The main reason for my PC purchase last year was for editing photos and video and creating my digital-music library. I've tried many different software packages trying to find something like the Apple iLife package, but nothing comes close. My next PC purchase will be a Mac.
Dale Adrion writes: Just yesterday I was talking to a friend about the iPod: how brilliant it was, how there really was no competitor for it, and how it makes me think that it's time to switch to the Mac. As this discussion was taking place, my Windows-based PC with the P4 and 512MB of memory, etc., etc., was struggling to send a graphics job to my "professional series" color printer. I know that somehow I have once again picked up something causing the computer to run slower and slower, something that my antispyware program, antivirus program and firewall cannot find. Who needs it? The reality is that for what I and most others do at home the Mac makes perfect sense.
William Vaughan writes: This past year I had a friend with an iPod who was absolutely in love with it along with his PowerBook. Although I constantly told him that there was nothing special about the iPod as opposed to other related products, I couldn't help but be amazed by the ease of use of both machines. I eventually purchased an iPod just to see what the big deal was and I was amazed. It has become an integral part of my life. No longer is there a CD changer in my car nor in my home. No longer do I struggle to write down tons of meeting notes -- I use my iPod with iTalk to catch those details so that I can concentrate on the bigger picture.
But the more important insight is that now I want other Apple products because I am so impressed with how the iPod not only revolutionized the music industry, but also simplified different aspects of my life. The iMac is my next major purchase, I can't wait to get it, and it's all because of the iPod.
Tracy Clark writes: I have been a PC user for the last 20 years. Windows has always been fine for me as I did not use a computer for much more than the Internet. However, in the last three months I have purchased and iPod as well as an iBook and truly love them both. I will never return to the world of Windows, except at work where I have no say in the matter. I have even considered switching my HP iPAQ 4155 handheld (the name is still pretty cool) to a Palm-based unit as it works better with the Mac.
Jason Sindler writes: I've owned an iPod for two years now and love it -- even more so now that I've installed iTunes on my PC and now have a commute (and books from audible.com). However, my home PC (a laptop) is fading from lack of hard-drive space and a smorgasbord of Windows patches and other security-software installs. Having convinced my wife that the home PC is toast, I'm ready for a desktop. The only answer is the Apple. Why? Because 90% of what we use it for at home is pictures (50%+), Internet, and music. the other 9% is money management (via Microsoft Money). So why get a PC and have to spend a inordinate amount of time to fix it when I can buy the Mac and have a PC designed for what I use it for? I can then use my work laptop (Windows, of course) for hardcore spreadsheet work.
Dan Decker writes: I was a total PC user who often made fun of the granola crowd that always sung the praises of their precious Apple computers. I was offended when my dad, a college professor, made his first computer purchase seven years ago -- a Mac. I was so ready to teach him all about the wonderful world of PCs and all they had to offer. Well, I hate to admit it, but in this case, father really did know best.
I bought my first iPod about a year ago. This brought me into the Apple store, where I learned of the brave new world of Macintosh computers. Computers in my universe serve two functions. In business, I spend 99% of my time in either the Microsoft Office suite (Word, Excel, and PowerPoint) or Lotus Notes. On a home computer, I utilize digital photography and Internet browsing. I also like to do online banking and my taxes with the computer. I knew that Apple set the standard with respect to the digital entertainment world, but when I found out that both Lotus Notes and all of the Microsoft Office suite could now be utilized seamlessly between Macs and PCs, the entire paradigm changed.
With those hurdles cleared, now I could address things like the spyware, worms and viruses that I found myself constantly battling with my PCs. I had four PCs networked at my house, and even though I ran the latest version of Norton and AdAware, I still found my machines clogged with spyware and pop-ups to the point that I had to reformat the hard drives every couple of months. A task I appreciated doing about as much as cleaning the gutters. I discovered that with a Mac, these irritating and frankly dangerous problems were all but eliminated.
So I did it. I took the plunge and bought an eMac for my son to replace a two-year-old Dell. At first he complained and begged his older sister to switch, as she had a almost-new Sony PC. After about three days I noticed his complaints had gone silent, as he made the switch from a Windows XP environment to Mac OS X. I too was learning how similar yet different these to machines were to operate. By the end of the week, he was singing the praises of his new Mac, and getting his older sister's attention -- her system was starting to slow down due to a nasty worm. By the end of the month, she was ready to jettison her PC.
Ten months later, I have just installed my fourth Mac, donating the PCs to my son's school. I couldn't be more satisfied. The bottom line is, they just work. Plug them in and they do what they say they can do. I no longer dread the thought of spending half my weekend trying to find reinstallation disks.
* * *
Other readers reported switching to the Apple world, but not for iPod-related reasons.
Greg Chirpich writes: My wife and I don't own an iPod. We did just get our new G5, replacing a Windows-based machine. The reason was a confluence of events: the proliferation of viruses and spyware; the sleek, quiet, space-saving design of the G5; the Bluetooth wireless; and the desire to experiment with digital photography. Our 23-year-old has asked for an iPod for Christmas. Myself, I like iPhoto. Note to self: Research/buy Apple stock.
John Parsons writes: My wife and I each have our own PCs at home, and we're sick of the viruses, spyware and crashes. Sixty days from today we'll be using two 20" iMac G5s. By the way, neither of us has an iPod. We're still lost in the 90s playing CDs.
Seth Weinberger writes: For 20 years I have purchased countless PCs for our family of four, each of whom wanted each successive wave of Intel and Windows innovations. We knew there were Macs out there, but they never were much of a consideration, because we were connected to a PC world at work, at school and with friends and family. In the last few weeks, three of us have switched to a Mac, and the fourth will do so soon. In the blink of an eye we have gone from all-Redmond to all-Cupertino, and we are not looking back.
As you correctly pointed out, the switch is not the result of one factor; it is a confluence of factors. The biggest factor is the spyware and viruses in the PC world that this year turned me into an almost-full-time computer maintenance man in my own home.
Michael Wyatt writes: I recently stood in a CompUSA store in Colorado Springs for 30 minutes on a Saturday. I had gone to browse the Mac software section and ended up converting two PC users (one with three PCs at home) to Macs. Both had the same issues you've outlined: fear, uncertainty, and doubt caused by the tidal wave of viruses, spyware, and malware. They were already ready to convert -- it's easier when you hear it from an user rather than a salesperson.
Mike Nemeth writes: A year ago if you told me that I would ever be using a Mac instead of a PC I would have told you that you were nuts. I had just purchased a top-end, name-brand PC with all of the bells and whistles and looked forward to all the neat things I could do with all of the new capabilities. Once I installed the virus protection, the firewall protection, the spyware sniffers, and pop-up blockers I had a system so unstable and requiring so much support that I never had time to use the new capabilities! In desperation I looked for an alternative and a friend showed me his Mac. Since then I've purchased a Mac for the home and haven't had a single regret.
Gerald Artman writes: I work on a college campus and all I see are iPods. Those iPods have initiated the purchase of iBooks, iMacs and Powerbooks. After all, Apple ran a promotion last year that if you bought a Mac you would get $200 towards an iPod. Furthermore, what would make parents happier than buying only one computer that will last for the four or five years when their son or daughter are away at school and does not require dad to make a trip up to campus to fix it every other weekend? I can clearly see the emergence of Apple and a shift in the power paradigm.
Herman A. Johnson writes: This fall I purchased my college-senior daughter an iBook after three years of doing phone support on a troublesome Windows ME/laptop combination -- a version of Windows which lasted only a short time, and I know why.
Dealing with the Apple computer and the company has been a real pleasure after years of Windows machines. The Apple OS X operating system is what Windows would like to be. The free support at the Apple store (a lot of in-store free training) make the higher price an easier pill to swallow and the fact that the operating system, the hardware and a majority of the application software is from Apple has been a real relief. File portability has been a cinch.
I am a practicing engineer and use many programs, including AutoCAD, which are a long way from ever running on an Apple. (I need to try the Apple PC emulation.) If the business software were not a problem, I would have converted to an Apple for personal use already.
Ack! Windows ME! Bad flashbacks!
Tom Williams writes: My family went from being a Windows household to a Mac household over the past two years. The dénouement was the hideous crash-prone Windows 98 operating system. The system gradually developed virtual arterial sclerosis and slowed to a crawl, in time becoming useless. New PC software upgrades became impossible as the system became increasingly unstable despite gobs of memory. The system would crash several times a day and have to be rebooted.
We started by getting a 700 Megahertz iBook for our son to take to France for a school-year-abroad program. It only crashed twice in three years! I was so impressed that I bought an iMac for our home which has never crashed over the last 18 months. Then I bought a new iBook a few months ago for my wife and daughter, and am actively considering getting another iMac for personal use.
If our company's accounting software were ever available in an OSX version, I would switch our 10 PCs to Macs in a heartbeat as well. I estimate that it costs $900 per year just to maintain each of the Windows PCs.
Ack! Windows 98! Bad flashbacks!
Some folks sound like they want to switch, but still have reservations:
Dave Friedman writes: You are absolutely right about Apple. But I still use Windows. I have numerous old Access databases that I've used, and still use from time to time and there is no equivalent product (of which I am aware) out there for the Mac. I keep hoping that the Virtual PC emulator available for the Mac will speed up so that memory intensive programs like Access (which can rival Photoshop for memory demands) can be used on a Mac. But, alas, that has not happened yet.
Jeff Taylor writes: My wife and I recently "switched" to the Mac and we are loving it. I love the stability and elegance of the operating system as well as the great bundled applications. My wife loves the iTunes music store and is becoming quite proficient at purchasing her music online and burning her own mix CDs. We both love our iPod and enjoying taking nearly our entire music collection with us whenever we travel or are otherwise away from home. The only problem I have is that I still can't seem to get away from the Microsoft hegemony due to the pervasiveness of MS Office and the fact that I have to use Windows at my work. Lest you think I'm a complete Mac bigot, there are still problems with the Mac due to its almost cult status. Software drivers for common peripherals seem to take much longer, if they are available at all. There is a lot of software that is PC-only which is also frustrating. I can run Virtual PC, but that defeats half of the purpose.
Neema Aghamohammadi writes: I believe that a small but significant number of Windows-iPod users will make the switch. But it will be delayed. I think that may people purchased computers in the 2000-2002 time period. Their iPod purchase will make some realize that their machines are not up to the task of encoding their CD collections. At the same time, they may be playing with digital cameras. This will lead to a short-term increase in upgrades. Most will not switch to a Mac at this time and will proceed with another Windows-based computer.
However, the iPod and repeated exposure to Apple portals (iTunes, iPod, Apple stores) will slowly make them more receptive to the Apple brand. The continued security and virus risks will continue to influence their thoughts on Windows computers. Over time (three to six months), they will conclude that maybe the Mac may be worthwhile. However, they just upgraded their computer so they will not be in the market for a new computer.
For this reason, I believe that while there will be a halo effect, it will be gradual and occur later than most analysts predict.
* * *
Of course, not everybody agreed with our hypothesis.
Santo Cuollo writes: I am looking to replace my aged Windows 95 machine, and the Apple products are attractive for many reasons. The problem with moving to an Apple? I can get a Windows machine from Dell, also reliable and reputable, for half the price. And when I visit an Apple store, or the Apple Web site, I see nothing to ease my wallet pain: no financing, no discounted bundling. Apple will not become a household name until they are willing to drive out cost from their processes and offer a "value" machine, and something more attractive than the years-old eMac. They have the better product -- now they need to offer the better value.
Doug Williams writes: The iPod won't make Apple PCs cheaper and won't help Apple PCs match the software selection of Windows machines. If I changed to a Mac, I would have to change professions too.
Charles Weaver writes: I haven't felt the need to buy a music player yet, but I do buy music online. I have stopped buying from iTunes because its songs can only be played on iPods and with iTunes. I would never buy an iPod for the same reason: I could only play music that I bought from iTunes on it along with MP3s that I ripped from CD's. When Apple decides to join the rest of the world, separate its hardware and software, and embrace open standards, it will become truly successful. If it continues its elitist approach it will continue to appeal mainly to, well, the elite.
Michael Burns writes: Did you contact Dell and ask them how the Dell DJ is selling? Currently they are on a one-month back order on all of their players and the are sold out of refurbished players. Oprah may have helped more than you suspect. I think Apple has a better chance of becoming the new Sony then it does of taking away significant market share from Microsoft.
Dave Chomas writes: You have succumbed to marketing hype. Apple preaches openness, but they're more closed than Microsoft. They will never learn -- they blew it by keeping everything in house with the Mac and now they're doing it again with the iPod. They need to let people buy music from anywhere, not just iTunes. They make next to nothing on the songs anyway -- if you could buy AAC-formatted songs from Amazon, Wal-Mart, etc. they would truly own the market for years to come. Once people truly begin to buy a lot of music online, they'll begin looking at other technology/players. Eventually, the other guys will get it and come up with cool designs: The Rio Carbon and Creative Zen Micro are getting there. While bigger hard drives may not be cool enough for you, removable batteries like the Zen Micro's should be. Apple, are you listening?
Mike Pisarczyk writes: In 1992, as a senior in college, I bought my first Dell. It was the computer that nearly every company I was interviewing with used, and by then ran all the latest games. I just couldn't stomach the idea of buying a Mac and having to buy new Apple software to replace my old Apple software. Since then I have bought another three or four Dells and had a raft of PC-compatible computers at work. Color me converted.
Until Apple licenses their designs and allows for some competition, they will languish with a small portion of the market. The cost difference is still too real. You might be right, Apple might have a real renaissance, but I will be following the revolution. Apple and its sometimes-foolish internal decisions fooled me once. I'm going to be waiting a long time to make sure that they don't fool me again.
Thanks to everybody who wrote in.
AI
