APD webcast
I agree with most of what Taylor said. They'll make bazoons of $ in the energy and environmental markets IF/when oil demand expands to a level like it was ~2 yrs ago. I think the environmental aspect will offset the energy side somewhat due to the curbing effect of the taxes that will be necessary to pay for the environmental drivers of APD business.
More specifically APD and competitors benefit from higher levels of production of heavy sour crudes and natural gases. The former is not so important in the current economic environment; however, the latter is important even though natural gas is butt cheap. Many of the middle east natural gas fields are very sour and many North Sea, deepwater Brazilian, and shale gas reservoirs have high CO2 and H2S. Each of those cases requires separation both for the sake of piping & selling the natural gas and for meeting environmental/tax requirements. If or when natural gas prices increases substantially, then APD will also benefit from higher coal consumption (both on the gasification and emissions sides). Higher rates of consumption of heavy crudes will obviously benefit APD in the hydrogen market.
However, one of my concerns would be competition from companies like Air Liquide and Praxair. I suspect this is a business where there are a lot of shady (non-free market) things that happen in the background that would give Air Liquide an advantage in countries where English is not the primary language.
APD & competitors will all benefit immensely if carbon capture legislation is enacted and if oxy-fuel plants start getting built. I think Taylor over-played this part and the bit about hydrogen fuel stations. With the exception of Norway, the Europeans have shown themselves to be a whole lot of talk and no action (e.g. the Vattenfall CO2 capture projects). In spite of a whole lot of belly-aching in Europe about the Bush administration, the US will almost certainly lead the way in carbon capture and most of it was set in play during his administration. (I'll thank my European and liberal friends, in general, for their support because it certainly helped my paycheck but things did happen when they happened). I think APD is counting on the US being the leader in terms of timing and quantity of emissions captured and sequestered. It's a gamble that it will happen and it is years away in anycase, but I don't think they'll lose much money on their current research and pilot projects because they'll almost certainly find other applications even if carbon capture legislation is not forthcoming. For example, the CO2 enhanced oil recovery business is growing and in the US there are some nice tax incentives. In addition, APD wins on both sides of CO2 EOR because both sides require separations.
cheers,
Charlie
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