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Re: scotyler100 post# 28186

Wednesday, 03/24/2010 6:07:44 PM

Wednesday, March 24, 2010 6:07:44 PM

Post# of 105534
About half year ago i made for my self a calculation on CBAI value:

Fact:
- CBAI has about 5bilion of O/S ... on google page
- USA has a population of 300M people .... natural growth rate is 0.59% (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States) .... which means that 0.0059*300M is about 1.77M new born

Suggestions:
- ok if you made a projection that 10% of new born child will store cord blood ... this are about 177k people every year ....
- they have to pay for storage about 100$/year.... that means that the first year they will made 17.7M of revenue ....
- 2nd year there will be 177k (from first year) + 177k(new born) ... revenue will be abour 34M .... and after 10 year there will be a revenue 177M ....
- this are very conservative calculation imo .... which include only USA population ... but imo CBAI want to go abroad to (this happened today with European partner )....
- so if 177M of revenue devided by 5 Billion shares .... there will be a revenue of 0.0345$/ share which pps is now at 0.0098 ...
- if they expands in EU which inhabitants have money to invest in cord blood of own child .... they will get 500M people more as potencial market .... if the rate remain the same ...0.6% of natural growth .... this are 3M of new borns
- and the rate of potencial investitors in blood from 10% grow to 20% .... they will have 350K of pople every year in USA and 600K fom EU .... so together about 1M people every year on rate 100$/year ...
- this means 100M $ of revenue every year, 2nd year 200M, 3rd year 300M .... in 10 years a anual revenue will be 1Bilion ... divided by 5Billion O/S .... 0.2$ of revenue .... profit margin suppose 40% ....this are 0.08$ of EPS ....
- if we predict a PE of 10 .... this is 0.80$ .... this seems realistic in 10 years ...

What do you think about this calculation?

Good luck

Loonley Tunes

Before you buy something do a good DD and make your own conclusions. My post express only my oppinion.

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