I tend to over analyze things so I have delayed commenting on the 3/4 hearing until now. Anyway, I am long and holding and have these thoughts about that hearing:
Fact 1: The agenda for the hearing called for a decision on SJ.
Fact 2: The hearing was delayed for about an hour for a meeting in the Judge' Chambers.
Fact 3: The WMI attorney asked for the postponement as the parties were making good progress towards a globial settlement and to allow some more DD.
Fact 4: The hearing was delayed until 3/12.
Fact 5: The judge didn't comment or ask questions from the Bench (to the best of my knowledge)
Given the above, my thoughts on each Fact are:
Fact 1: IMO, the SJ is going our way and is now a major leverage point in our favor in these settlement talks. Already well discussed on this Board.
Fact 2: IMO, it doesn't take an hour to delay a hearing. There was a lot more going on. See additional thoughts in Fact 3
Fact 3: IMO, there is some telling information here. First, WMI requested the postponement not the FDIC. IMO, that was the EC's doing because they want more detailed DD. IMO, the parties were on cruise to settle without the commons receiving any value before the EC. That settlement would have been for a lot less $$$ than what the EC is looking at now. Therefore, the level of DD done prior to the EC was inadequate and probably covered up some of the mistakes that FDIC/JPM wanted hidden. So, the EC needed more information on some issues. My guess is that these issues deal with the operating performance of the seized assets. IMO. this is a big $$$ item and JPM wants it hidden. IMO, arguing about this along with convincing the Judge of settlement progress took the hour in the Judges Chamber. IMO, the EC came out well in this meeting.
Fact 4: IMO, this was great. Settlements work best with timelines. The Judge could have given the parties until the next scheduled court date. She didn't. IMO, she told them to get the DD done in a timely way and get a globial settlement.
Fact 5: IMO, no special significance. All lectures were done in Chambers and the parties have their marching orders. I like this Judge.
So, in summary IMO, we will see a settlement; but there are some difficult big $$$ issues left which may take us all the way to the 12th. IMO, EC has the leverage and an advantageous schedule.
IMO, the reult should be very rewarding and a good chance at double digit pps for the commons.
Just some thoughts, please do your own DD.
