AI
Wednesday, February 10, 2010 5:58:53 AM
Re: USD - Short-Term Shallow, Fib-Paced Rally; Mid-Term Decline Continuation
Overnight, the EUR:USD pair rallied to a significant Fibonacci 38.2% level on a daily chart. This target was established using the 12 JAN 2010 HIGH = 1.4579 and 04 FEB 2010 LOW = 1.3629.
While the Eurozone is devising various ways to patch its financial crisis, the situation remains critical on at least two relevant questions. First, how temporary are these financial measures? Second, What about the economic burdens of Portugal, Spain, Italy? I believe that the current rally is to remain shallow (along these Fibonacci levels) on the basis that investors are likely to raise these questions but face uncertain answers regarding the overall European outlook.
On a different front, we are also discovering that the US economy has been exposed to some degree to the Greek financial crisis. While this fact was not revealed during the early development of this off-shore crisis, the media are now bringing this home in terms that should affect the USD within the EUR:USD pair.
OVERALL, I expect a shallow Fibonacci-paced retracement in the short-term, while the mid-term outlook still favors deeper downside on the basis discussed above.
Happy trading!
- Dalcindo
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily:
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 3-Yr., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
------------------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Re: $USD Pullback Per Fibonacci; Relative strength charts: $XEU vs. $USD:
Hi, 3x!
Still trading off of oanda.com platform here.
High = 1.37114
Low = 1.36438
Positions at 100,000 units each for Fibonacci retracement levels:
- 21.4% = 1.36596 target - Reached, still in position with 300,000 units; moved stop loss to 7%
- 38.2% = 1.36695 target - Reached right now; position unchanged; moved stop loss to 15%
- 50.0% = 1.36776 target - Pending; expecting selling 1/3 of position
- 61.8% = 1.36854 - Pending; expecting to sell 1/3 position
- 100% - High = 1.37114; speculative interest in keeping this position based on favorable longer timeframes (i.e.: 15-minute and 60-minute charts still favor a higher retracement; secondary indicators are getting taut and demand some unwinding.
Long-term outlook remains favorable for the USD in this major pair.
Current support = 1.26607 = 55-EMA on 5-minute chart (actually just got validated as of this typing).
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily:
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 3-Yr., Weekly Chart:
------------------------------------------------------------------
DAA
Overnight, the EUR:USD pair rallied to a significant Fibonacci 38.2% level on a daily chart. This target was established using the 12 JAN 2010 HIGH = 1.4579 and 04 FEB 2010 LOW = 1.3629.
While the Eurozone is devising various ways to patch its financial crisis, the situation remains critical on at least two relevant questions. First, how temporary are these financial measures? Second, What about the economic burdens of Portugal, Spain, Italy? I believe that the current rally is to remain shallow (along these Fibonacci levels) on the basis that investors are likely to raise these questions but face uncertain answers regarding the overall European outlook.
On a different front, we are also discovering that the US economy has been exposed to some degree to the Greek financial crisis. While this fact was not revealed during the early development of this off-shore crisis, the media are now bringing this home in terms that should affect the USD within the EUR:USD pair.
OVERALL, I expect a shallow Fibonacci-paced retracement in the short-term, while the mid-term outlook still favors deeper downside on the basis discussed above.
Happy trading!
- Dalcindo
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily:
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 3-Yr., Weekly Chart:
- Dalcindo
------------------------------------------------------------------
Message in reply to:
Re: $USD Pullback Per Fibonacci; Relative strength charts: $XEU vs. $USD:
Hi, 3x!
Still trading off of oanda.com platform here.
High = 1.37114
Low = 1.36438
Positions at 100,000 units each for Fibonacci retracement levels:
- 21.4% = 1.36596 target - Reached, still in position with 300,000 units; moved stop loss to 7%
- 38.2% = 1.36695 target - Reached right now; position unchanged; moved stop loss to 15%
- 50.0% = 1.36776 target - Pending; expecting selling 1/3 of position
- 61.8% = 1.36854 - Pending; expecting to sell 1/3 position
- 100% - High = 1.37114; speculative interest in keeping this position based on favorable longer timeframes (i.e.: 15-minute and 60-minute charts still favor a higher retracement; secondary indicators are getting taut and demand some unwinding.
Long-term outlook remains favorable for the USD in this major pair.
Current support = 1.26607 = 55-EMA on 5-minute chart (actually just got validated as of this typing).
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 12-Mo., Daily:
$XEU:$USD (RS) - 3-Yr., Weekly Chart:
------------------------------------------------------------------
DAA
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