AI
Monday, February 08, 2010 4:52:06 PM
Follow-Up (08 FEB 2010): AAPL - BEARISH
As indicated in prior AAPL analysis (See links above), the current price pattern relative to resistance/support lines and secondary indicators continues to delineate a bearish path.
More specifically, we first projected that on a short-term basis, AAPL would rally towards to a 38.2% Fibanacci - corresponding to $199.93 within the first half of that past trading week. In effect, at mid-week, price reached a $199.79 high before testing the lower border of its bullish channel.
In fact, a very-short-term channel was then delineated ("Blue channel") to follow the momentum of that short-lived rally and detect with some degree of precision the price where it would breakdown. That breakdown occurred again where we had expected it: immediately following the reached Fibonacci target.
As of this trading day (08 FEB 2010), in a way that connfirms added bearish outlook, AAPL has now validated its prior support into a new resistance level (i.e.: the line along which where the "blue channel" used to offer price support), thus throwing the price back to renewed lows.
OVERALL:
Looking at the week ahead, there remain some pros and cons worth considering before committing to one directional trend:
- PROs: RSI and secondary indicators are forming lower highs, as well as higher lows, hence creating flags, or patterns of consolidation that have yet to commit to either bullish or bearish direction within this 60-minute chart. In fact, weekly and daily RSI patterns still remain open to further upside, but the recent break-down in bullish constructions within a smaller timeframe may already herald the end of that run.
- CONs: From a general standpoint, the S&P 500 is generating bearish sentimental signals through its VIX. As mentioned before, we constructed a VIX short-term vs. mid-term chart to detect early directional changes among investors. As of this date (08 FEB 2010, close of trading day), VIX's relative strength chart remains favorable towards a bearish characterizaton of the overall market (see VIX's relative strength chart below).
Considering this bearish environment where the anticipation is growingly favoring a declining market, expecting further influx of supporting buyers into AAPL becomes more of a speculative exercise. Unless AAPL forgot to reveal some other mind-blowing news about its iPad, I believe that the charts continue to discount any known underlying fundamentals: what you see is what you get, and what I get from the chart is that the market is growing colder towards AAPL.
Technically speaking, the technical developments discussed above are weighing in favor of a greater downside.
More specifically (considering a 60-minute chart):
- RSI double-topped at points where price is reaching a lower high
- The lower high at which we are today, the secondary indicators in CCI, Wm%R, CMF and PPO's histo remain toppish, while the ADX is marking a renewed down-trend strength (ie.: ADX is kinking back up at the 20-level, at a point where (-)DI is crossing over (+)DI)
- A/D, OBD and ChiOsc lines are also turning down at that same point where RSI double-topped and Price hit its head against its resistance line.
Internal technicals are indicating a growingly bearish mass of investors. Please, feel free to review other charts and TA here: As I receive private message comments on indices and specific stocks, I will continue to reply via PMs and post replies nonymously. Thank you for the stimulating technical discussion.
- Dalcindo
AAPL - 30-Day, 60-Minute Chart:
VIX Short vs. Mid-Term Futures - 12-Month, Daily Chart:
- Dalcindo
As indicated in prior AAPL analysis (See links above), the current price pattern relative to resistance/support lines and secondary indicators continues to delineate a bearish path.
More specifically, we first projected that on a short-term basis, AAPL would rally towards to a 38.2% Fibanacci - corresponding to $199.93 within the first half of that past trading week. In effect, at mid-week, price reached a $199.79 high before testing the lower border of its bullish channel.
In fact, a very-short-term channel was then delineated ("Blue channel") to follow the momentum of that short-lived rally and detect with some degree of precision the price where it would breakdown. That breakdown occurred again where we had expected it: immediately following the reached Fibonacci target.
As of this trading day (08 FEB 2010), in a way that connfirms added bearish outlook, AAPL has now validated its prior support into a new resistance level (i.e.: the line along which where the "blue channel" used to offer price support), thus throwing the price back to renewed lows.
OVERALL:
Looking at the week ahead, there remain some pros and cons worth considering before committing to one directional trend:
- PROs: RSI and secondary indicators are forming lower highs, as well as higher lows, hence creating flags, or patterns of consolidation that have yet to commit to either bullish or bearish direction within this 60-minute chart. In fact, weekly and daily RSI patterns still remain open to further upside, but the recent break-down in bullish constructions within a smaller timeframe may already herald the end of that run.
- CONs: From a general standpoint, the S&P 500 is generating bearish sentimental signals through its VIX. As mentioned before, we constructed a VIX short-term vs. mid-term chart to detect early directional changes among investors. As of this date (08 FEB 2010, close of trading day), VIX's relative strength chart remains favorable towards a bearish characterizaton of the overall market (see VIX's relative strength chart below).
Considering this bearish environment where the anticipation is growingly favoring a declining market, expecting further influx of supporting buyers into AAPL becomes more of a speculative exercise. Unless AAPL forgot to reveal some other mind-blowing news about its iPad, I believe that the charts continue to discount any known underlying fundamentals: what you see is what you get, and what I get from the chart is that the market is growing colder towards AAPL.
Technically speaking, the technical developments discussed above are weighing in favor of a greater downside.
More specifically (considering a 60-minute chart):
- RSI double-topped at points where price is reaching a lower high
- The lower high at which we are today, the secondary indicators in CCI, Wm%R, CMF and PPO's histo remain toppish, while the ADX is marking a renewed down-trend strength (ie.: ADX is kinking back up at the 20-level, at a point where (-)DI is crossing over (+)DI)
- A/D, OBD and ChiOsc lines are also turning down at that same point where RSI double-topped and Price hit its head against its resistance line.
Internal technicals are indicating a growingly bearish mass of investors. Please, feel free to review other charts and TA here: As I receive private message comments on indices and specific stocks, I will continue to reply via PMs and post replies nonymously. Thank you for the stimulating technical discussion.
- Dalcindo
AAPL - 30-Day, 60-Minute Chart:
VIX Short vs. Mid-Term Futures - 12-Month, Daily Chart:
- Dalcindo
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