AI
Tuesday, February 02, 2010 9:39:01 AM
Re: VIX & SPX; Economic Calendar - Short/Mid-Term Futures:
Short-term futures have lost ground against their mid-term counterparts, possibly indicating that recent short-term economic data - however positive they may have been - remain overshadowed by longer-term concerns regarding budget deficit and plans to dig a bit deeper into national debt.
VIX Chart:
As indicated in an earlier post, VIX's chart pits short-term futures against mid-terms' to help decipher early directional changes and sentimental trends among investors.
Although no clear signals have emerged indicative of a market reversal to the down side, trendlines and patterns of sentimental changes have emerged in the chart.
Of note, the 45-daily EMA has been tested once more recenttly - this technical gaining increased meaning since it occurs while positive divergences have developed concurrently (see MACD against price, as well as ChiOsc against A/D and OBV lines).
For now, look for shallow retracements, further positive divergences, as well as ADX line and its (+)DI ascent into a more trend-defining range for further indication of any trend reversals in SPX.
Direxion vs. SPX:
Using Direxion's ETFs where large (BGU) and small (TNA) caps, energy (ERX) and financials (FAS) are expressed in relative strength against the S&P 500 (Second chart below), recent market decline has been tempered by a bullish candle, indicative of residual bulls resiliency, the duration of which will depend on upcoming market data scheduled throughout this week.
Economic Calendar for this week:
Look for improvement in:
1) pending home sales (MoM) later on today
2) ISM non-manufacturing composite data tomorrow
3) non-farm payrolls on Friday.
- Dalcindo
Short-term futures have lost ground against their mid-term counterparts, possibly indicating that recent short-term economic data - however positive they may have been - remain overshadowed by longer-term concerns regarding budget deficit and plans to dig a bit deeper into national debt.
VIX Chart:
As indicated in an earlier post, VIX's chart pits short-term futures against mid-terms' to help decipher early directional changes and sentimental trends among investors.
Although no clear signals have emerged indicative of a market reversal to the down side, trendlines and patterns of sentimental changes have emerged in the chart.
Of note, the 45-daily EMA has been tested once more recenttly - this technical gaining increased meaning since it occurs while positive divergences have developed concurrently (see MACD against price, as well as ChiOsc against A/D and OBV lines).
For now, look for shallow retracements, further positive divergences, as well as ADX line and its (+)DI ascent into a more trend-defining range for further indication of any trend reversals in SPX.
Direxion vs. SPX:
Using Direxion's ETFs where large (BGU) and small (TNA) caps, energy (ERX) and financials (FAS) are expressed in relative strength against the S&P 500 (Second chart below), recent market decline has been tempered by a bullish candle, indicative of residual bulls resiliency, the duration of which will depend on upcoming market data scheduled throughout this week.
Economic Calendar for this week:
Look for improvement in:
1) pending home sales (MoM) later on today
2) ISM non-manufacturing composite data tomorrow
3) non-farm payrolls on Friday.
- Dalcindo
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