Stock Incubator

[dalcindo]

Re: AAPL - Hourly, Weekly, Monthly Charts:

Kamillion,

AAPL's 60-minute chart is lining some important sets of oversold indicators, which I track for formation of reversals (See: "Pre-Rally Pattern" in 60-minute chart below). However, these do not provide any information as to how "high" the rally would occur.

Instead the Fib grid or the RSI retracement calculations might help define a target:

Using Fib's, it concurs with your exit target of $200/share. In fact, the 38.2% Fib retracement places that target precisely at 199.93%.

In a more esoteric method, calculating RSI's positive divergent values against that of price ($197.75 - $190.83 = $6.92; $197.75 + $6.92 = 204.67) would define a technical target NEAR the next Fib's level of 61.8%, or $204.67.


OVERALL:

Short-Term View - (See AAPL hourly and weekly charts below):
I am expecting a short-term rally earlier this week (This new trading week opens in less than 4 hours as of this writing). Whether this brings it before your expiration day (in three weeks from now) would be hard to even guestimate. However, the "(S)UTC" has helped me in the past in this regard, by extending the strongest support line forward in this and establishing a "lowest achievable equity value" - as long as that line remains unviolated, of course.

Long-Term View - (See AAPL's monthly and Nasdaq's yearly charts below):
In the long term (See $COMPQ chart - Last chart below), a year ago, I drew a speculative downtrend channel ("(S)DTC") on 16 JAN 2009 that projected the "Highest Achievable Equity Value" for that index. Interestingly, that value was reached right at the upper border of the bearish channel earlier this year. Considering the leading position AAPL holds in that index, and the validity of that long-term channel, I continue to believe that the long-term outlook for AAPL is not as good as its short-term expectation, as discussed above.

Please, let me know how your trade turned out at the end.

Best of luck.

- Dalcindo


AAPL - 30-Day, HOURLY Chart:



AAPL - 36-Mo., Weekly Chart:



AAPL - 5-Year, MONTHLY Chart:



QQQQ - Top 4 Holdings: AAPL, QCOM, MSFT, GOOG - 12-Mo., Daily:



$COMPQ - 29-Yr., Monthly Chart:



- Dalcindo


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Message in reply to:
hey D, thanks for the thorough response. to answer ur questions,

i am very long
timeframe = asap
expiration = february

ill be out for the day but viewing ihub from my phone from time to time. i posted a chart a couple threads down that in my view shows aapl is at a temporary support going into monday, with a max gain of 207.50 where a gap lies. looking forward to more of ur aapl analysis. thanks.

actually, heres the chart again, i think i can repost it. $200/share would be my target. and probably where i would exit, bc i always exit early lol
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DAA