Alloy Steel Inc. (fka AYSI)

[gilead23]

EPS modeling for next Q

Thought it might interest a few if I diverged from the pissing match and posted some modeled eps numbers based on various margin levels. There are assumptions embedded here for things like SGA and I ignored some trivial items.

Based on the below I think the range is likely wide between .05 and .10/share. I am inclined myself to think margins come in around 50% to 55% with earnings around .07 to .08. but as always this has been near impossible to guess from quarter to quarter. Mostly I think 50% feels like a good estimate because if you back out the mill expenses last year margins were north of 50% for the year and I would hope the economies of scales from higher sales balance out any price concessions that were made. Tax rates could also vary hopefully to the good side if they get some tax benefits from their scrap expense but that would be a one time help anyway so more of a benefit to short term traders.

 
 SALES                  5,700,000  5,700,000   5,700,000  5,700,000 5,700,000  5,700,000 
 GROSS MARGIN              40.00%     45.00%      50.00%     55.00%    60.00%     65.00% 
 GROSS PROFIT             2280000    2565000     2850000    3135000   3420000    3705000 
 SGA                      1050000    1050000     1050000    1050000   1050000    1050000 
 Income tax                418200     515100      612000     708900    805800     902700 
 Net Income                811800     999900     1188000    1376100   1564200    1752300 
 EPS                        0.047      0.058       0.068      0.079     0.090      0.101