My WAG'S For The Games
1-4-6-7-9-11
FYI & FWIW
1* Take the Jets/Colts Under 39.5, The Colts come in against the best defense in the NFL and also against one of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Jets are averaging just 147 pypg this season as they depend on running the ball which will only help this game go Under the posted total as the clock ticks away. The Jets game plan is to grind out this game and make it low scoring because their offense does not have the weapons to trade points with the Colts. The Jets defense has allowed an average of just 258 ypg this season and opponents are averaging just 9.3 ppg against them over their last 3 games played. The Colts have also been very strong defensively at home this season with opponents averaging just 17.7 ppg against them and just over 328 ypg. Four of the Jets last four games as an Underdog of +3.5 to 10 points have gone under the posted total. Take the Under 39.5 as your free NFL play for Sunday.
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The AFC Championship courtesy of Tony George Sports
The J-E-T-S.... Line moving up to +8 or higher as of Friday!
There are 2 glaring stats that are the foundation of all handicapping rules that I ignored last week that KILLED me last week as I took the Chargers over the Jets and got beat by the Books.
The Jets have the better running game (#1 in the NFL) and the better defense (#1 in the NFL), with two shutdown corners and a blitz happy scheme devised by head coach Ryan that is crushing teams on the road in the playoffs. They are ramming it down people throats running it.
You never go against a team, in the playoffs, with the better run game, and better defense, EVER! While on the surface it looks to be a Colts blowout with Peyton Manning as triggerman at home for the Colts, and his counterpart a rookie QB who has looked deplorable at times this year, STILL this line gives me great pause.
Yes the Colts lost at home to the Jets this year, but ONLY after they benched their starters with a 15-10 lead, only to see it disappear and lose out to the Jets, and halt their undefeated streak. So many people figure turnabout is fair play as Manning and company look for revenge at home with the Super Bowl on the line, in what should be a dominating game by a very good team at home this Sunday, some think the Colts will strugge to break a sweat. NO SO FAST FOLKS!
The last 3 games the Colts have averaged 14 ppg on offense, the Jets 26. The last 3 games the Colts have allowed 20 ppg and the Jets 9. The Jets allow less points on the road on defense for the season than the Colts do at home.
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Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
I look at this game and think you are going to see a shootout in New Orleans. The Vikings are putting up 29.6 ppg against teams that allow 22.5 ppg and on the road they give up 23.5 ppg against teams who only give up 20.8 ppg.
The Saints are scoring 33.2 ppg at home this year against teams who allow 22 ppg and they give up 358 yards per game against teams who gain only 329. Basically this game boils down to both offenses being among the best in the league, and the defenses not being bad, just not good enough to stop either one. This one goes over.
"Your Vegas Is Showing"
I've been to Hollywood
I've been to Redwood
I crossed the ocean
for a heart of gold
I've been in my mind,
it's such a fine line
Later, The Team.
