Zeev's Ideas

[Koikaze]

ZEEV, MARKET/ECONOMY - up to ZEEV:322062, 11/14/04

11/13: (321917) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev-- Your road map lines up with 1936-1937 incredibly well. note this post I just made to AJ on his thread.

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4560487

What do you think?
(*END*)

Except that this time, I think that the 2005/6 lows might be lower than the 2002 lows.... unlike the post 1937 lows.


11/13: (321928) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, this would be a serious decline from these levels. What fundamental reasons do you think will bring the market down to new lows ?

Falling dollar ? Inflation ? Rising interest rates ? Inability to reign in budget deficits ? Tougher earnings comparissons in 2005 ? Profit squeeze related to inflation in commodities ? Tax cuts may not become permanent ?
(*END*)

A consumer led recession, and the "need" of secular bear market to create "uncommon" value by getting a generation of new bulls (hedge funds?) to throw in the towel.


11/14: (321980) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Yes and just imagine what that will do to the deficit. What do you think the Chinese Centrla Bank will have to say about all that?

Think they will carrry on buying our bonds? So what if you go 100% cash what good is it if Europe is in turmoil and your bank is shut? Europe is a tinder box.

And how about another does of unemployment? Huh? How about the good voters of Iowa ? Think they are going to happy about their votes of early November when even more of them are chucked out of work?

By all means predict disaster but at least follow it it through other than some charts.

(Part 2)
If you think that outcome of the elections has anything to do with the future denouement of economic events here and with our trading partners, I have a bridge in Brooklyn for sale. (g). see my old April 2000 long term map, independent of who is in charge of the white house.

(Part 3)
ZH - itts not the outcome but what he will say when another few millions lose their jobs. That wan't supposed to be the outcome for those that came out to support him neither was losing their savings.

So if you think that governements are unable to improve thier economies I'll sell you the bridge that I just bought offf you<gg>.

As for the Chinese and the Europeans we really do not need another dose of unemployed Germans etc.
(*END*)

Limtex, by now, you should be familiar with my April 2000 post suggesting a lengthy secular bear interrupted by few cyclical bulls. If not, go to kayaker's thread he has that post for "posterity".