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Re: Koikaze post# 955

Sunday, 11/07/2004 7:06:10 PM

Sunday, November 07, 2004 7:06:10 PM

Post# of 1044
ZEEV, NEAR TERM - up to ZEEV:319499, 11/07/04

10/27: (315355) (*COMMENT*)
Do you think we hit some resistance here at 1965 and then resume the march to 2000? If we can take October high of 1971 we should be in good shape but we're definitely hitting some resistance here.
(*END*)

I think we will take the 1965, and possibly even close within 5 (+/-)of 1971. We may not make the 2000/2025 I had by election day, but I think we should get pretty close.


10/27: (315637) (*COMMENT*)
Goes that mean you are calling a top Today if it reaches 1965 ?
(*END*)

Nope, just reducing exposure since we have covered more than 50% of the target move I had from 1900 to about 2000. Take profits when offered.


10/27: (315380) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, how much of a retrench do you see from the 2000 range before another assault? Do we test 1900 again, or not? Thanks.....
(*END*)

Depends how far we go up, if we reach 2025, the retrench could go to around 1940 or so.


10/27: (315490) (*COMMENT*)
"Did you cash in some healthy profits on LSCP?"

No, Zeev, did you? It looks like the weekly chart shows more left in this move ... although I doubt it will be this week ... <G>

Ken
(*END*)

I took out 40% of my position, still have three serving left, got to take profits when offered. Cash gone above 25% and will rise more here.


10/27: (315505) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Any forseen deviations for the roadmap for the remainder of the year?(assuming no actual terror incidents)

The reason I ask is at a projection of 2,275 by Jan. 1 from here is a whopping 15% jump.

With the turnips projected short term relapse coming up, I assume this would be "the" time to load up (1945 +/-)
(*END*)


ANSWER #1 - Actually a more refined dating has the peak between January 20 and February 2nd. In between I have a local low on November 12 (Jim has a turn date November 24th I believe, so we are about two week apart. The truth is that it will depend a lot on the election, if it is not contested seriously and by Nov 3rd we know who is the next president, there should not be too much problems with the normal cycles. A contested election may wreck the whole picture.

ANSWER #2 - Not by January 1, that is the peak I expect between January 1 and February 20th or so.


10/29: (316060) (*COMMENT*)
Disciple, I am getting the feeling that this market is going to continue up (on balance) into late November or early December. Zeev has a "local low" due November 12th but the rally off of that low ought to be explosive and there are an awful lot of nervous folks around and a lot of people shorting stocks and as they cover, that could provide extra fuel to the up move.

Some of the cycle work, that I do, indicates the trend is up into early December.

Several posters have mentioned a possible early Tax Loss selling season, so perhaps the "Theory of Contrary Opinion" will prevail and we will get a more traditional Tax Loss selling season into the days after Christmas.

We Will Know In The Fullness Of Time

Jim
(*END*)

Jim, I think it all may depend on the elections, if it ends up with the courts, then we may have a November of discontent. If a decisive victory, then that local low of Nov 12 should be contained around 1940 (and still assume us going above 2000 before that...).


11/01: (316730) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, I see really dramatic shift in the sentiment during the last few days. Are there any bears left? EPC is down to 0.55-0.6. Big spike is Rydex Nova/Ursa.

I am betting on short-term decline (2 days).
(*END*)

Same bet here, but not yet, maybe peaking tomorrow? I do have a local low in mid November.


11/02: (317326) (*COMMENT*)
So, is today's 2000 the local top before mid-November?
(*END*)

I don't know, if the election is decisive one way or another, we may even reach that 2025 outer boundary tomorrow, but I think we peak no later than tomorrow at 2:22....


11/02: (317390) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev Should we be expecting either a "neutral" of "sell" any time soon ? You recent posts seem to indicate that. IMHO.

But I'll wait for your "word"(g)
(*END*)

I already stated earlier today I expect a minor top no later than tomorrow at 2:22.... not worth taking off the horns, however, since I doubt it will be more than 85 Naz points peak to bottom.


11/02: (317641) (*COMMENT*)
I am not scared-MM'S shaking the Trees!
(*END*)

I think it is more than that, we have reached the 2000 level and a small retrench is due, just dumped a number of positions here...


11/03: (317970) (*COMMENT*)
Disagree with you on Jcom . One good piece of news and "Bang" it could be up 5 bucks . Worth holding here since I have a small cushion in it, and profits from others in the last few days.Are you completely out of Bste now ?
(*END*)

Completely out of BSTE, remember, my map has today as the local top, so I raised cash, dutifully. For the map keeper, that is a transition to "Neutral". We got the 125 Naz points I sought, and expect a retrench to around 1940 or so.


11/03: (318288) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, Great Call on your rally from 10/20 until today and to think I had the market going down, in November. Just goes to show you what I know.

You are the master!

Jim
(*END*)

You have had some pretty prescient calls in the past, and I have had some monstruous screw up. You win some you lose some, and as for November, it is only the 3rd, and I still have a retrench here till about the 12th... I think we started it already.


11/03: (318354) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev Are you trying to have your cake and eat it too ?

(1)You keep you horns on. (2)But say down until 11/12/04

(3)I can see why some people get confused(g)
(*END*)

Not at all, very short term down to about 1940 (thus moving back to Neutral after target in the 2000/25 was reached), medium term bullish with a target major top between 1/20 and 2/5 next year at around 2275 (read prior messages for detail), thus horns are still on.


11/04: (318858) (*COMMENT*)
Zeev, if we somehow get thru 2025 tomorrow w/gusto, does the 1940 short-term get put on the shelf (as wrong), or just adjusted up (to wherever the move stops?) tia
(*END*)

Not really, I still have a swoon down into the 12th, it may be wrong, but that is what I have on the map and the main support is still 1940, so it may be a 100 points swoon if we break to the 2050 or so area. My cash position is at 32% and may increase if the frolick continues. Got caught with three OB's today (NSTK, TEVA and SAM), thus the relatively low cash.


11/05: (318985) (*COMMENT*)

(Part 1)
Well Zeev, they got within 2 of the 1925... One more day should do it....<g>

(Part 2)
you must have meant 2025. Strangely enough, the EPC is not dropping much as it would near a local peak, I would have expected under .6, but we got these numbers a week ago, so I am not too concerned with my "increased conservatism". I think that tomorrow I will do additional selling, particularly if we gap up.

(Part 3)
Thanks, Yes, I did meand 2025.... Too many numbers in my head.

I am starting to see lots of Bullishness from Gurus and "Advisors" saying we may go up into year end... Not excessive yet IMO

(Part 4)
We got to clip their wings before such a rally takes hold, thus my thinking of another swoon down before that....

(Part 5)
Zeev, The official decline is postponed until Monday at the earliest so I can be here to enjoy it! <VBG> Have a good trading day!

(Orders submitted just in case!)
(*END*)

You actually could see a late day let up today, it could be your standard G&C today, I am getting ready to unload few positions in the first hour if "fair prices" are offered. (g).


11/05: (318988) (*COMMENT*)

I think that 10400 will serve as an important barrier on the Dow for now.

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