Rooster & Spree, there is no way anyone is able to accurately predict what will happen to IDCC's stock price after the Nokia resolution is over. I have my predictions as everyone else does, but there are WAY TOO MANY variables to predict what will happen.
Just think about what variables there could be with Nokia alone. Do we get the full amount we publicly stated, do we get nothing, do we get 25%, 50% or 75% of the amount? Do we settle 2g prior to the final arbitration award like we did with NEC that contains a favorable 3g rate? Does Samsung jump in front of Nokia and settle before the hearing?
Now what happens shortly after the arbitration is over? We don't know if there are potential licensees that are in economic discussions that are ready to sign as soon as Nokia is resolved. IF this is the case, IDCC could very well announce a string of licensees, the like of which we have never witnessed with IDCC before. What will the effects on the stock price be IF that occurs.
The above are just a small amount of the possibilities. Like I said at the beginning of this post, there are way too many variables to accurately predict what will happen with the stock price. We all have our hopes, dreams and predictions, some of which will prove to be accurate after the whole process is over.
Look at TASR. It hit a high of $64 earlier in the year only to fall back into the 20's just a few short months ago. They are now approaching their all time high again, a few short months later. How many could have accurately predicted that? I for one didn't because I thought that some sanity was finally being priced into the stock when it dipped into the 20's a couple of months ago.
Next year will be a roller coaster ride filled with many ups and downs. My only hope is that at the end of the year we are near the top for the year, only to enter 2006 with many more tops to climb.
One of the reasons I didn't sell back in 1999, besides my greed, was the belief which I still hold today. Based on a conservative PE multiple of 15, I believe IDCC has the potential to exceed its all time high in the future. If things come into fruition like I hope, I believe IDCC can sustain revenues and net income of well over $5 per share. If that were to occur, or at least high profile analysts believe that will occur, they will put a price target of several times my very conservative figure. To me, that will be bubble pricing which will then justify some unloading.
Let's have fun ending this year and looking forward to the next year. Good luck all.
