Targets based on S/R lines and Fibonacci retracements are fine, but a target without a timeframe is next to useless for a trader. There is nothing "magic" or prescient about S/Rs and Fibs in that they are somehow revealing an underlying natural truth. It is only to the degree to which that if enough traders base their trading decisions on them, either individually or in program trading, they tend to become self-fulfilling. One of my biggest trading demons has always been to jump in too early, and if you had backed up the truck every time the arrival of wave iii has been loudly proclaimed here over the last six or seven months, you would have been crushed. In fairness however, in the current market environment, TA has not been all that effective either, but an early recognition that the market was being driven by artificially high liquidity compliments of the Fed would have allowed you to stay on the right side of the trade a large portion of the time (see my NDX chart a few posts back). Except for a few short-lived pullbacks, the direction (trend) of the market has been up and with yesterday's bounce back, whatever the cause, remains so. A good system measures what has actually happened, and in the context of where it is, i.e. OS, midrange, or OB, and in view of what the market has done previously in similar if not precisely the same conditions, recommends a position accordingly, and without presuming to know with 100% clarity whether that will be "correct", in case it isn't, to have good money management strategies incorporated. However, as Poker has said many times, it is the bottom line that counts, and it really doesn't matter how you get there. What anyone chooses to believe in is up to them, in whatever context they want to apply it, since they will ultimately reap the rewards or pay the consequences, and that is as it should be in the natural order of things, except for misguided schemes to redistribute weath (i.e. take from Peter to pay Paul).
