DragonWave (DRWI)

[FanPaw]

Worst case: Clearwire will not go bust. They raised $1.5 Billion and that carries the build-out through 2011 according to analysts. DRWI is the main (or only??) supplier of the Ethernet backhaul gear, and for good reason. Their stuff is technically very advanced but most of all Cheaper. Given the size of required capital investment by the telcos, price matters a whole, whole lot.

As far as angling for the biggies Verizon and AT&T: I think DRWI with its cash warchest is a very credible competitor and the fact that the Clearwire network is getting built with their products counts again for a whole lot. Basically, by the time those two will have to make a decision they can look at actual performance under mass market real world conditions at Clearwire - no spec sheet will do that.

Verizon stated that they prefer glass fiber over WiMax, at least initially. The way I see it: for densely built-up city cores the fiber installations will probably win out, depending on costs. Fiber is considered to potentially carry more traffic volume and have very low latency.

But for installations into the area surrounding city cores and on towards close regions, WiMax' cost advantage will be impossible to ignore. And DRWI's WiMax comparatively low latency is one of the unique selling points.

And yes, the beauty is that this is a technology transition forced on the telcos throughout the world and it will take something like 10 - 15 years to do it all. I also expect DRWI to be highly alert to further technological advances, doing whatever it takes to stay at the cutting edge. By the way, the pool of potential customers goes way, way beyond the telcos.

This will of course need to be watched, but DRWI deserves my investment for sure.