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Sunday, January 03, 2010 8:53:17 PM
First, Zion's share price will have nothing to do with what other companies are doing.
Second, share price will ultimately be dictated by what the commercial value of the oil/gas that is pumped out of the ground.
So, if Zion were to strike a reservoir of oil and/or gas equivalent to what Noble found in the Med., then the book value of the stock would be $33 billion/ 15 million shares outstanding=> $2200/share. But the share price would ultimately be based on the earnings of the company. So using the Noble find as a benchmark again, if the $33 billion were extracted over, say, a 20 year period, then the earnings per year would be $33 billion/20 years or $1.65 billion per year. Divide that by the number of outstanding shares, then multiply by a P/E multiple (18 on average for oil/gas producers) and you get ($1.65 billion/15 million shares)*18 P/E multiple => $1980 per share.
Now, these figures are based on a VERY BIG assumption that Zion is sitting on something equivalent to what Noble found in the Med. If they have, I think we've seen our last $5 rights offering. The next IPO will come after Zion announces the size of their find, unless there's nothing down there, in which case we'll probably see another $5 offering.
Thoughts?
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