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Gold Rises Most in Two Weeks on Dollar’s Slide, Rate Outlook

By Pham-Duy Nguyen and Nicholas Larkin

Dec. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose the most in two weeks on speculation that the Federal Reserve will keep U.S. borrowing costs low in the medium term, weighing down the dollar and increasing the appeal of the metal as an alternative investment.

The greenback fell from a two-month high against a basket of major currencies. The Fed may reiterate its pledge to keep its benchmark interest rate close to zero percent. Gold has climbed 28 percent this year, reaching a record $1,227.50 an ounce on Dec. 3, as the dollar slumped 5.5 percent.

“This is all about expectations the Fed will have to leave rates low for an extended period of time,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock & Co. in Chicago. “That is bullish for gold.”

Gold futures for February delivery rose $13.20, or 1.2 percent, to $1,136.20 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Dec. 1. The metal headed for the ninth straight annual gain.

The dollar fell as much as 0.4 percent against the euro. The European Central Bank has kept its benchmark rate at 1 percent. All 98 economists in a Bloomberg survey said the Fed will keep its rate at zero percent to 0.25 percent today.

“The market will be looking for any indication of an earlier liquidity withdrawal or interest-rate rises, given recent bullish U.S. data,” Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, said today in a report. “It is too early to turn completely bullish on the greenback, but sentiment is certainly improving.”

Morgan Stanley said gold will rise to a record next year before declining in 2013 as a rebounding U.S. economy forces the Fed to raise rates.

“Under our base-case scenario, we anticipate the peak price could be in the range of $1,250 to $1,300,” Morgan Stanley said. “Under our bull-case scenario, which anticipates a later rise in U.S. interest rates and the dollar, this peak range could be as high as $1,325 to $1,350.”

Silver futures for March delivery rose 23.8 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $17.693 an ounce in New York. The metal has gained 57 percent this year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajzF0XKOl_Oo