kik- spend less time laughing and more time digesting what i said ...
now- q for fish and gil
can each of u independently give me your analysis of how large u think the wearplate industry is, both globally and in WA ...
also a rough baseline thought as to how u'd view industry growth ...
this may take a couple days and i dont think it is as simple as merely just finding a hard # (like industry capex for example)- it will take some logic and assumptions ...
i think u can view it as if u were being interviewed by bain or bcg- this is the type of q they'd ask- im v interested in the thought process ...
if u have the time, id really appreciate it and it would be very helpful- another question id ask would involve u you feel say the top 5 industry players are --- globally
thanks v much
btw, sack
im not sure y 7c is needed to sustain stock north of 220, esp given the lag factor to whatt he sept 30qtr represents and how much higher eps should be in dec 30 qtr as outlined in my previous post ...
and while 4mm or so in revs may disappoint some, it is still a seq triple+ w likelihood of more to come ...
but it wouldnt take too much volume to push the stock lower, hence my being armed and ready
gil i agree that to get one mill going by mid 2010 is far more likely- these things arent coming from kits, there is no guidebook or ready to assemble- its all done from scratch and highly customized- and each one is diff re thickness and overpass etc ---
my pt earlier is that the co, running existing two mills (mini-mill #1 and mill #2) is worth much bigger % above todays price
u can have fun by layering additional capacity into the #s but not needed at this time and somewhat mitigated by the risk in execution and macro- but again your cushion is eps power from existing capacity and a very strong order book ... which in my opinion yields price north or strongly north of today
anyhow id be very interested in how fish and gil think about industry size ..
AI
