If we decide that there is no buyout deal in the works, what time line are we looking at for actual production from our blocks? Akpo was discovered in 2002 and is about half finished in 2009 but is producing oil, I found this article about the drill ship shortage.
Petrobras' success in deepwater oil exploration has lead the company to invest zealously: as of May 2008, the company had contracted 80% of the world's deepwater rigs, driving up dayrates for the sector as other companies like Exxon Mobil and BP competed for the remainder.[25] Even after the collapse in the price of oil, fleet utilization has remained at 100%.[2] The reason is fivefold:
Projected deepwater rig shortfall[52]Most E&P companies are stuck in deepwater drilling contracts with time periods of six months to six years.[3] Add together the contract costs of not drilling with lost oil revenues, and E&P companies have an incentive to continue drilling, even if they do so at a loss.
The cost of new production hovers in the range of $90 a barrel,[53] but it takes deepwater operations about 10 years to start producing. After 10 years, the Energy Information Agency forecasts that prices will be above $120 a barrel.[48]
There is a lack of shipyard production capacity.[54] Before 2008 few thought that oil would break $100 a barrel. Even half a year into oil's decline since the peak in July of 08, long term forecasts remain higher than before.[48] Not anticipating that oil prices would be so high, and that there would be a surge in demand for deepwater rigs, shipyards have been slow to build additional production capacity.
The large oil & gas companies have investment grade ratings, and even then still have deep pockets.[55] The cost of capital has risen for all companies, but many E&P companies have the resources to continue bidding up dayrates.
Traditional oil producing basins have matured, particularly on land, and exploration & production companies have been forced to look for new reserves in ever more challenging environments like the deepwater environments off the Coast of Africa and in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (beyond the Continental Shelf) in order to maintain production and profits.
For these four reasons, a deepwater rig shortage has been forecast through 2009 until 2011.[52]
Does rigzone show a waiting list? I know they post the actual contracts for the existing ships. Another article says that 80+ rigs are coming on line in the next two years, 2/3 of which are booked by Brazil. It looks like just coming up with crews would be a chalange, Depwater had a crew of about 240.
AI
