The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[zebra4o1]

Been worrying on line all weekend about the possibility of huge resources of shale gas in Europe. I'm sure you've seen these two articles, which are typical:

Energy crisis is postponed as new gas rescues the world

world.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6299291/Energy-crisis-is-postponed-as-new-gas-rescues-the-world.html


New Way to Tap Gas May Expand Global Supplies

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/business/energy-environment/10gas.html?_r=2&em


I've been puzzled about shale gas outside of North America for two years now. Can't understand why it has taken so long for this obvious technology transfer to start. Are there some kind of mineral rights problems in Europe and China that have slowed things up? Or North America has a more entrepreneurial oil and gas industry? What gives? Guy on SI (EnergyPlay) claims US is tech leader in oil and gas, and that total number of wells drilled in North America is probably more than half the wells drilled in the world.

As an LNG investor (IOC, GTLS, BG, etc.), it makes me extremely nervous to think that China and Europe might develop gas gluts just like the US.

And it sure would be nice to know how shale gas in North America will play out over the long term. Is it really as cheap as it seems? Or we are just experiencing a typical production overshoot from high gas prices one or two years ago?

Framing it in terms of a long term cost vs supply issue, it's normal to expect that at higher prices, new large resources would become available. But shale gas seems to be a large new resource that is cheaper - seems unlikely. Stuff lke this shakes your faith in peak oil.