I have something I want to throw out to anybody who wishes to discuss. I am not trying to sugar-coat anything to make this stock appear more attractive, nor do I want to be overly negative and make the stock appear less attractive. I am well aware of Dennis' background as well...I have done much reading and I can understand skepticism, however, not all is always as it seems.
Here is what I would like to suggest. Here is what we know and/or can make safe assumptions of:
Fact - Authorized Share count is grossly bloated and must be reined in line with potential value and we all know how much of a moving target that is.
Fact - The last published Outstanding Share count was just over 21 billion.
Fact - EVFL has stated quite clearly in their filings that they would in fact be diluting in order to raise capital.
Fact - Announced a share repurchase plan of 10 billion shares over 6 months.
Assumption - knowing dilution was their stated plan and reviewing the volume over the past few months, I believe we can safely conservatively assume that the OS is 30 billion or more.
If the AS was reduced to 50 billion shares, that would be a valuation of $5 million at current PPS. We could argue all day that it is or is not worth $5 million. But, the moment the PPS moves to $0.0002 we would then have way more proponents against a valuation of $10 million. This is exactly why (among other reasons, not the least of which is no revenue) the PPS barely touches the $0.0002s before quickly falling back to current PPS.
If we see shovels in the ground for the new station(s) and an announcement that the Durant plant is operational, maybe then we could argue for a higher valuation. However, the opening of the Durant plant has already been postponed a couple of times and the most recent postponement was from September 2009 to late spring of 2010.
The only other announcement that might send the PPS slightly higher would be that they have received the grant from the DOE that they have applied for...I suspect we will know the answer to this in early November.
I just can't seem to get the value of this company to an appropriate amount that would suggest any upward movement of the PPS in the next few months. Can anybody comment on this?
Thanks in advance for the "constructive" discussion.
