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Alias Born | 09/19/2008 |
Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:32:59 PM
In their books it's a deposit and as such, in theory a bank such as JPM can lose a 4B deposit without too much damage.
It helps to decide the settlement because formally it helps to justify paying what WMI is likely to be requesting.
I am positively convinced that the settlement talks are hot and that diverse scenarios for such a settlement are discussed at JPM Board. I am convinced that it may happen any time.
However I don't think that the 4B loss is the "compelling event" for them to feel forced to settle.
A)I really think that the most scary thing for them is the potential risk out of discovery.
B) Other "compelling event" for them to settle would be a string of litigation damages: Trust, Taxes return, Intelectual Property and Brand penalites, etc combined with Sleet closing the door for appealling. These moneies are not recorded in WMIs books as deposits but as part of the xtra profits they declared after the takeover (... those $B in Goodwill!!) ... Losing these ones is not at all business as usual in a bank's books. Losing a deposit is understandable.
I don't mean that a settlement may not happen next hour. It may. What I mean is these sort of situations ( A or B above) - not just the 4B - would really trigger them to accept paying really what WMI asks and in hurry up to settle.
What is nice here is that all fronts keep moving and adding incremental pressure to JPM. And with or without a settlement after the 22nd new futures and secure paths for WMI - it's commons and its prefs - will be available.
All my opinion Billiam_2, but this is what I can answer you. As you can guess, I would be glad to be wrong and parting with the 4B will be compelling enough.
Cheers.
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