Hi Myst,
I am reluctant to respond because I have some family stuff coming up this next couple of weeks, and I will not likely be able to keep up with all the discussion.
I have been thinking about the AIM vs X_Dev ever since I exchanged spreadsheets with you in the early days of your X_dev board.
First let me say that I admire the work you and Yong have done. I feel it can be a very useful tool, and after all this family stuff is out of the way, I intend to give it a go in real life.
I also want to point out to Jack and others, that X_dev and AIM are now very different animals in my opinion. I also think it is probably true that a 'well tuned' X_dev will beat AIM. But the user needs to be aware that X_dev may require more attention and quite possibly re-tuning over an extended period, to maintain it's advantage over AIM.
For me, I use AIM as the basic engine for managing my portfolio's, and then use additional techniques to boost returns, like CEF's for the cash holdings and options for stock holdings. I know these don't 'count' in a raw comparison of X_dev and AIM, but anyone considering actually running a portfolio with X_dev would need to think the whole operation of the portfolio through.
X_dev seems to be to be much more aggressive on moving between stock and cash, and it appears quite common to be either 100% in one or the other. Of couse one can tweak the tuning knobs of X_dev to be less aggressive, but that may not yield very good performance on some stocks.
X_dev also seems to demand more attention than AIM. For instance, I am going to have limited access to the net for the next couple of weeks. I have no problem managing my AIM accounts while I will be 'disconnected'. I do not think I would be comfortable leaving X_dev unattended for that length of time.
So, overall, I think AIM and X_dev are very different tools, forged from the same conceptual base (sell to the greedy, buy from the scared!), and a well tuned and attended X_dev will likely beat the performance of a BTB AIM account. Which tool will be the best for an individual investor will have a lot to do with the individual and what they want to accomplish.
In conclusion, thanks for setting up your X_dev board and letting rookie's like me follow along as you developed it. I am sure I learned more from you than I contributed to your work. I like having both AIM and X_dev in the arsenal of tricks that I understand and use as an individual investor.
TAB
AI
