Tornado Alley (PROG)

[rico7]

Spree, all choices are bad.

You write: "if we leave we admit defeat and possibly embolden real state sponsors of terror, if we stay we face huge casulties and a possible civil war, I wouldn't want to be the man to try and figure it out".

Substitute "commies" for "real state sponsors of terror" and you have VNam dilemma all over again.

Leave is the answer, IMO. The only questions are how, when, and how long will the people we would like to see in power can hold on.

No doubt we will leave a mess and it will probably get worse and be bad for a long time. They will have to find their own solution and the best way we can help that is to get the hell out, put a new admin in office here that does not carry Bush's stigma and baggage and try to exert whatever influence we can from afar.

There is a strong possibility Turkey would move in to the North taking over large parts of Iraqi Kurdistan. Iran will continue to assert its influence via Moqtada al-Sadr, and the surviving Baathists will re-assert themselves in the central part of the country.

The real rivalry will be between the surviving Baathists, more centrist Shiites and Shiites in alliance with Iran (al-Sadr).

The biggest losers (as always) will be the Kurds.