Loop RE the latest rumor. What a total joke IMO. If anyone actually believes the ridiculous rumor and worse acts on it by buying shares or options, they deserve what they get. There is no way anyone either inside or outside the company could set a date for a settlement. If discussions are ongoing, which I am sure they are, the parties have not come to any type of verbal agreement that states "we will settle this thing by election day." How idiotic is that to believe that negotiations would be ongoing with some date like that, or any other date for that matter, to be discussed.
IMO Nokia loses nothing by waiting until at least the hearing before they seriously consider a settlement. IDCC on the other hand could gain a lot IF, they propose a settlement for a large sum but forgiving a year or two of past royalties in exchange for a decent 3g agreement going forward. If there is no 3g rate agreed to as part of any settlement agreement, then the management of IDCC is totally inept. Why put themselves, and us, through what will surely be another long drawn out arbitration in the future over 3g rates by settling 2g? If Ericy showed them anything, just because you settle up on the past for pennies doesn't mean the other party is willing to come to terms on 3g going forward.
I hope we don't settle and instead go the distance on the arbitration. If the contract is as clear as management has stated, then there is no reason whatsoever to settle for pennies on the dollar IMO. We need to gain credibility with the street. The only way to do that is to get an arbitration decision approaching what management so proudly announced to the world over a year ago. If we were to settle for 50% or less of that amount, our future will no way be anywhere near where most investors hope it to be.
If we get 75% or more of what they stated we would as a result of the Ericy agreement, then the investment community will have no reason not to afford us a much higher market cap than where we are today. Within a year of finalization of the arbitration at 75% or more of what management stated, we will be on our way to a TASR like ride in the stock price IMO. If on the other hand we get a loss or an award of less than 50% of the amount stated by management, we will languish at or around $20 (after sustaining a significant temporary drop) for the foreseeable future.
IDCC's rumors have never come true yet many love to continue to post about them. If I started to make up rumors today, I would bet one of them would actually come true at some point in the future and then I would be able to point out that I was right about that one so then I must have some credibility. If management has shown us one thing over the years, it is that they are very, very good at keeping information under wraps until the deals are done.
Sure they have stated that they are in many economic discussions lately but they have to say that to keep investors motivated. I believe they are in these discussions but as they pointed out, from the start of economic discussions to final agreements takes months and years to finalize. With the overhang of Nokia right now, it would be idiotic for other companies to agree to rates at this point in time. There are major roadblocks to signing anyone of significance right now, IMO. I believe we will have another couple of small agreements going forward before arbitration but nothing that will propel us past the 20's like many hope.
It is a sad time in IDCC history to be happy as I am right now that we have broken $16 again. I never would have thought I would be happy to close over $16 with all that has occurred in the past year and a half. The new agreements, the increase in cash, the buy backs and such and we are lower than pre Ericy. What is the street thinking right now? Oh well, enough rambling. I firmly believe we end this year in the 20's barring any delay in the schedule for the arbitration. We will experience some speculative buying leading up to the arbitration over the coming months and then we will be on pins and needles for the first couple of months next year.
Good luck to all and have a great weekend. I hope all you Florida residents escape the wrath of yet another hurricane coming at you with minimal impact. My heart bleeds for you. Take care all.
AI
