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Tuesday, July 28, 2009 7:16:37 PM
From Newbiewar
I disagree, unfortunatly.
There are too many loose strings to push under the rug before discovery starts...
lets think about what a global settlement means...
FDIC has to pay WMI bopfan suggests 1x book is too low($26 billion)
FDIC has to satisfy WMI as a creditor of WMB, 13 billion (including trust securities, perhaps JPM will satisfy that 4 billion)
FDIC also has to pay WMB noteholders somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 billion, or JPM could accept responsibility for them.
thats at least 70 billion if not closer to 96 billion(assuming a 2x book) the FDIC is going to bleed.
JPM has to satisfy WMI 4 billion deposits, 4 billion trust securities, 6 billion trademark and patent infringement, thats 14 billion (perhaps FDIC will satisfy the 4 billion trust securities)
JPM has to satisfy WMI as wrongful death of corporation or whatever discovery might uncover, as high as 3x damages (assuming the entire WMB equity is the damage, 3x 26 billion = 78 billion)
JPM has to satisfy texas lawsuit not sure what will make them go away, havent read their demands of the judge.
and if thats not all JPM might have pre-seizure suits as pre-seizure owners fight for recovery. This would be advised after JPM made a settlement.
worst case scenario, global settlement could cost between JPM and FDIC at least about 150-200 billion dollars to make the whole thing disappear... I dont think anyone has the means to make it go quietly...
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_W/threadview?m=te&bn=86316&tid=198651&mid=198651&tof=1&frt=2#198651
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