Poker, a trading signal is different from a market prediction, in that it has two parts, i.e. a recommended position *and* an execution window. If you have taken a signal and it turns out to be "wrong" re: what the market actually did, you take your lumps, and through good money management practices, e.g. Stops, limit the damage and live to fight another day, but constant revision and then claiming that is the way it was to begin with sounds like something Obama would say. If a position is entered and held against an uncooperative market such as we have now trying to be Short, even though on a daily basis the signal will eventually be right, the market would have to drop below the original entry to be profitable, and that would be a drop of 110 NDX pts to get below the Intel earnings gap up. A good technique for mitigating the negative effects of a run like the last 11 days against an opposite signal is to cover at some maximum acceptable loss, and then plan to reenter higher, cover on the dips, reenter, etc. You might only make pocket change by doing this, and it is definitely not the Ronco Rotisserie approach of "set it and forget it", but it gives you the best opportunity to hold your own against an irrational market and stay positioned for the eventual collapse.
