Repost from June 2:
Last evening I had a very long , private conversation with texas ripper concerning his conversation with another mining company. This makes the second time that I have heard that old data can be used in a NI 43-101 if it can be backed up by present drilling or the lab that was used is in high regard. It would be the call of the qualified person doing the NI 43-101.
Also the pics that SPARK had posted this AM was a map of the SE Zone that clearly came from Musto Exploration - the company that did a re-assay in 1988 on original drill cores from Gulf (1950's drilling). My contention is that the lab that Musto used for the re-assay of the original drill cores may still be in tact and available for the company to use. If so, this post from last month may be more than just a wild guess. In the spirit of discussion, here it is. All based upon data contained in the PR's and my own opinions:
Posted by: jim6103 Date: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 11:27:45 AM
In reply to: None Post # of 59395
N.I. 43-101 guesstimate update:
My last stab at guesstimating this awesome deposit was focused on the D Zone:
"The 3 categories of resource are 1) Measured 2) Indicated 3) Inferred. The company believes that they have enough drilling/ancillary data to justify an "indicated" resource estimate. I don't know if the total 404 million pounds will be in the indicated category, but certainly a good portion will. That is what the Qualified Persons are determining.
It would really be fantastic if the total of indicated and inferred resource would come in at around 400 million pounds of Niobium. That would place the resource at approximately $8 BILLION market value."
Next OntaREEo rightly pointed out that the drilling program recently completed covered 30% of the defined resource area of Zone D. I and others were quick to conclude that this upcoming report would most likely then contain only about 121,000,000 lbs of indicated resource for a market value of some $2.5 Billion.
Rereading the pr's for the umpteenth time, this exerpt from the Apr 22 PR really brought the entire issue to rest. The conclusions that follow have brought me to a feeling of completion for all of my guess work!
"The company is on schedule to produce an N.I. 43-101 mineral resource report. With our work to date, we expect the results of our evaluation to accomplish a number of objectives, including:
-- Materially increase the reported historical resource and;
-- Establish that the Nemegosenda mineral resources represent one of the
larger mineral niobium resources in North America and;
-- Outline the potential mineralized area within the South East Zone."
How are they going to show an increase in the historic resource (188,000,000 lbs) if they only show 30% of the drilled resource (121,000,000 lbs)?
The company stated with the work done to date that they can "materially increase the reported historic resource."
I believe that they can use most of the 404,000,000 lbs. that was the calculated amount from data given in the same report. They could do this by calling the drilled area (9 recent holes) an "indicated resource" and the remainder that was not drilled by us, but has historic data that we confirmed, an inferred resource.
My conclusion for D Zone is an indicated resource of 121,400,000 lbs. and an inferred resource of 283,400,000 lbs.
Lastly they state that they are going to outline the potential of the SE Zones in our soon to be released N.I. report. There seems to be enough data from the past that just may be eligible for use in an inferred resource estimate as the company is really looking to include the SE Zone potential in this report or why would they have mentioned outlining the resource in the SE Zones? From the same PR:
"In 1988 Musto Explorations Limited ("Musto") carried out an evaluation of the so called "East Zone" (the South East Zone), which is located some 1500m south east from the D Zone. Musto re-assayed nine drill holes from core which was still available. These nine drill holes are from an area of 250m x 700m and to a depth of 200m. Sarissa has checked the reports, maps and sections from this area and have calculated that there is a potential resource with a weighted average grade of some 0.35% Nb2O5 within this block of 250m x 700m x 200m."
Resource calculation:
250 X 700 X 200 mts. = 35,000,000 cu mts X 2.8 cu mts/tonne
= 98,000,000 tonnes X .0035 Ni = 343,000 tonnes Ni x 2204.6 lbs./tonne = 756,177,800 lbs. Niobium in SE Zones.
This 756 million lbs of resource that was outlined in the PR from the Musto work just may show up as inferred resource in the NI report. The tip off, I believe, was in the prase "outline the potential mineralized area in the South East Zone." I believe that the justification for using the data is because Musto was able to re-assay the original cores from Dominion Gulf:
"Musto re-assayed nine drill holes from core which was still available"
- BIG, BIG find here!!!! Musto located the drill cores from the old Dominion work. If we had been able to locate the old Dominion cores in the D Zone, we may not have needed to drill at all in D Zone. Scott was originally hoping that they would find the old drill cores on the property, but no luck. The really big news here is that Musto was able to get the old drill cores and because they confirmed the earlier Dominion Gulf assays, we might be able to use the data for an "Inferred" estimate. I find it significant that this find by Musto is mentioned in a PR.
Conclusion and best guesstimate of resource:
From D Zone: 121,400,000 lbs Indicated and 283,400,000 lbs. Inferred.
From SE Zone: 756,000,000 lbs. inferred resource.
Total: 121,400,000 lbs Indicated and 1,039,400,000 lbs. Inferred
At $20/lb that is a total market value of Indicated resource of $2.43 billion and an Inferred of $20.788 Billion.....
This is all speculation and opinion on my part, but derived from data contained in the company PR's, which I believe to be reliable....Good trading....Jim
