R U Ready 4 Some Football

[Bird of Prey]

some thoughts on the Ogunleye trade.


Been reading a lot of folks (reporters and NFL pundits) that think the Bears may have gotten the better end of the deal in the Booker for Ogunleye trade. Much has been made of his 24 1/2 sacks over the past two years. I agree at first glance it looks like the Dolphins didn't do very well. But let's look at this from a longer term perspective.

Keep in mind the average for DE across the league is about 7 sacks per season.
also keep in mind that on average sbout 2/3 of the sacks come from the right end position (in Miami that's Jason Taylor). therefore the average sacks for the left end position is slightly less than 5.

Ogun's numbers look even more impressive at this point. which is why the Bears are willing to pay so much for him and why he believes he deserves it.
Many of his detractors have said that his numbers are inflated because of the presence of Jason Taylor on the other side. Surely in a system where Ogun is the focus of the offenses blocking scheme he won't do as well... or so the story goes.
However, a look back at Miami's sack production over the last several years reveals that Miami's left ends have all been highly productive. Trace Armstrong's 18 sacks in 2000 being the peak performance.
I think it is also noteworthy to point out that Kenny Mixon and Lorenzo Bromell had outstanding performances at that spot. So outstanding that it led to them getting big contracts with other teams looking for a pass rusher.
It is also noteworthy to point out that all three players had average or lower sack production with their new teams.
It appears to me that Miami's defensive scheme is what is producing a lot of sacks for right DE's. It has made some average DE'd look pretty good and some above average DE's look great.
Ultimately I think this trade will pan out to have been good for both teams in the long run and short term. Ogun will probably produce 8-10 sacks for the Bears, and in doing so will help the whole defensive line improve. It may be that he gets paid a little bit above his production but I feel the Bears will think the overall improvement in the DL will be worth the expense.
Booker gives Miami a respectable receiver tandem and will make teams pay for doubleteaming Chambers. With Freeman in the slot this year I like Miami's talent at WR. If the QB can get them the ball! (a big if). Next year their toughest descision will be where to line up Chambers Booker and Boston.. that line up will give defenses fits.