I just read a report that said "Smart Money (Commercial Futures Traders) is still positioned heavily on the Short side, despite this market advance. As of 05/26, the COT Report (Commitment of Traders) shows they are net Short the market with - 77,545 contracts. Chart courtesy of timingcharts.com "
With June 30th as "D-Day" (profit sharing/401K quarterly statements), this might be the last hurrah for profit before re-positioning/window dressing for quarter end. (ie: push market lower, buy the dip, bring the market back up by month end).
Not sure if that will happen, but with every manager facing the same stat publication (lipor avg), then there is certainly an incentive to manipulate! A calling card "A++" would be that the manager made the most money in the first 'up market qtr' in the last 3. Hmmmmmmm. I wonder. I just feel very uncertain...
