I just wonder how AIM-HI would have worked with stocks only (FTSE or S&P500) for that same time period. With last year's huge decline, I can't help but think that it would have run out of cash early on in the decline....though I could be wrong.
Hi, Ray,
I fired up AI's historical tester and got these results. If one had AIMed SPY since inception in 1993 using AIM-HI parameters, using Lichello's monthly checkup interval:
AUTOMATIC INVESTOR HISTORICAL ANALYSIS FOR SPY
======= PERFORMANCE =======
Current Portfolio Value: $22,355.56 (144 shares owned)
Profit or (Loss): $12,355.56
Simple Return: 124%
Annualized Return: 5%
Buy/Hold Portfolio Value: $27,451.98 (301 shares owned)
Buy/Hold Profit or (Loss): $17,451.98
Buy/Hold Simple Return: 175%
Buy/Hold Annualized Return: 6%
Return on Capital at Risk: 247.91%
Average % Capital at Risk: 49.84%
Using the original AIM formula:
AUTOMATIC INVESTOR HISTORICAL ANALYSIS FOR SPY
======= PERFORMANCE =======
Current Portfolio Value: $17,604.48 (94 shares owned)
Profit or (Loss): $7,604.48
Simple Return: 76%
Annualized Return: 4%
Buy/Hold Portfolio Value: $27,451.98 (301 shares owned)
Buy/Hold Profit or (Loss): $17,451.98
Buy/Hold Simple Return: 175%
Buy/Hold Annualized Return: 6%
Return on Capital at Risk: 197.90%
Average % Capital at Risk: 38.43%
Using the 67/33 formula:
AUTOMATIC INVESTOR HISTORICAL ANALYSIS FOR SPY
======= PERFORMANCE =======
Current Portfolio Value: $20,252.32 (129 shares owned)
Profit or (Loss): $10,252.32
Simple Return: 103%
Annualized Return: 4%
Buy/Hold Portfolio Value: $27,451.98 (301 shares owned)
Buy/Hold Profit or (Loss): $17,451.98
Buy/Hold Simple Return: 175%
Buy/Hold Annualized Return: 6%
Return on Capital at Risk: 224.31%
Average % Capital at Risk: 45.71%
Using the optimizer, we finally best B&H with these parameters:
Symbol: SPY
Original Investment: $10,000.00
Automatic Investor Portfolio Value: $31,251.64
Buy & Hold Portfolio Value: $27,451.98
Buy & Hold Return = 175%
Start Date: 28-Jan-93
End Date: 19-May-09
Frequency: monthly
Buy Resistance = 76%
Sell Resistance = 40%
Min % per Purchase = 31%
Min % per Sale = 37%
Initial Cash = 9%
Control Increment = 40%
Trust this is useful.
Best,
AIMster
AI
