Strictly: Drilling

[Croesus I]

Some really nice posts on your thread @ the other board Frank...

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17576286differences from last few recessions, this is structural
not just a busted bubble, but entire environment different
past recessions were part of the business cycle, driven by peaks in shortages, high product prices, high interest rates employed to forestall unacceptably high demand, with both commodities (oil, etc) and goods (clothing, etc) in shortage

the "cure" was lower interest rates and accumulation of added debt

current recession is far more pernicious, with subterranean forces that BEAR no resemblance to the past cycles

this is a structural imbalance, driven by excess mfg capacity, excess IT and business equipment online, excess product inventory, excess debt load overhang, low prices, widespread liquidation, debt collapse, bankruptcies

the "attempted cure" has been sharply lower rates, which are met by lukewarm if not lethargic demand for yet further debt, since households and businesses have a surplus of debt already, and forecasted nearby marginal demand growth is minimal at best

inventory levels will ebb & flow here, and somewhat low now
but the remarkable overlooked measure is inventory ratio
it is still unchanged, since demand is slack, WOW !!!
(akin to still high PE's for stocks, since lower earnings)

sorry, GreenSpasm, but you are locked in a corner
the supposed "economic experts" cannot detect the subtle differences
heck, these are glaring differences

we are now into the third year of Liquidation Phase
without unprecedented 30-35% increase in Fed Money Supply, we would see BREAD LINES forming and 15% unemployment
just like 1930-32

by the way, dont trust any unemploymt figures now
the hedonic process has now seen fit to exclude Transportation sector layoffs from such calculations
dont wanna make the numbers too bad, now
might frighten the fragile consumers
(first to the CPI, now unemployment)

as a wise man once said
ONCE THE LIQUIDATION PHASE TAKES HOLD, IT WILL NOT STOP UNTIL IT IS COMPLETE

continued horrible pricing power will hurt earnings
continued decline in dollar will hurt stock valuations and domestic economic growth
distrust of the financial WallSt system will hurt fund inflows
meanwhile, bankrupt victims will continue to dominate news
here is a decent list of further bankruptcy risks
compliments of Barrons and Weiss

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=17570846

the doorjam to the Golden Parlor gonna get broken
/ jim