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Stats point to no tipping by A-Rod
Slugger performed worse during blowouts than close games

By Ed Eagle / MLB.com

05/17/09 10:49 AM ET

While Alex Rodriguez's admission that he used performance-enhancing drugs during his tenure with the Texas Rangers ignited a media firestorm, the allegations by author Selena Roberts in her recent book, "A-Rod: The Many Lives of Alex Rodriguez," that the slugger was tipping pitches to middle infielders on opposing teams during blowouts were viewed by many as a greater blow to the integrity of the game.

According to a report in the New York Times, an analysis of Rodriguez's statistics from 2001-03, and those of opposing middle infielders during that period, seem to indicate that Rodriguez was not tipping pitches. Or, at the very least, that any pitch-tipping that was done was extremely ineffective and counterproductive.

Using a statistical device known as Leverage Index, which was developed by Tom Tango, the author of, "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball," Sean Forman of baseball-reference.com compiled data which showed Rodriguez actually performed better during high-pressure situations than during the low-pressure situations associated with blowouts.

How does Leverage Index work? According to an example in The Times article, a hit to lead off the top of the first (an L.I. of 1) has one-third the significance of a hit with the bases loaded and none out in the top of the fifth with the home team leading by two (an L.I. of 3), and three times the impact of a hit with the bases empty and two outs in the bottom of the sixth with the visitors leading by four (an L.I. of 0.33).

Although the formula is not exactly as simple as determining a batting average, ERA or OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging), it nonetheless provides a basis for comparing Rodriguez's success rate in situations of varying pressures.

Forman's research showed that Rodriguez's OPS from 2001-03 was 1.076 in high-leverage situations, 1.017 in medium-leverage situations and .982 in low-leverage situations. The data was similar for opposing middle infielders: an .899 OPS in high-leverage situations, .825 in the middle-leverage situations and .817 in low-leverage situations.

Forman also found that Rodriguez's OPS dropped to .851 when he batted in games where the team's were separated by seven runs or more, as compared to a 1.021 OPS when the team's were within six runs of each other. Opposing second basemen and shortstops posted a .744 OPS in seven-runs-plus games, and an .840 OPS in all other situations.

Ed Eagle is a reporter and editor for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.