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Posted by: tjwny Date: Monday, May 04, 2009 9:23:23 PM
In reply to: PriceTeam who wrote msg# 38139 Post # of 38142 [Send a link via email]
Every body includung me is stunned with disbelieve. It is not just a 33% rally in S&P. Look at stocks at brink, LVS MGM BCS AXP WYN HOT, now some are up 400%. This short squeez on financials is nothing short of psychological warfare. Look at not just the money lost by shorts ( including me ) but even more painfull is oppotunity lost.
Wall street mafia, at brink of oblivion resorts to a dirty long squeez in Jan-Feb after it had CLEARLY assessed the damage to financial system by Lehma AIG etc debacle and the remedy prescribed by fed and treasury. It was a manufactured decline as opposed to unexpected shocks last fall. ( as you have noted crashes only happen rarely.)
Recently "Black Swan " echoed my own musings that stock market has similarities to ponzi scheme as market is not a depository vehicle. But the rampant greed of financial mafia will drive away all its feeders as they bring on serial crashes and rally backs squeezing both longs and shorts. Even Bernie offered its clients steady returns for a long long time.
I applaud your efforts to find a holy grail of a T/A. But imho you are on wrong track. As the article in Bloomburg states about uselessness of T/A; no such thing exist or ever will. It is quantum chaos / general relativity.
Regarding data input for a TA, price is primary data while moving averages are only derivitives of price. There are two other important variables 1. Volume 2. Breadth. Vector Vest nicely put them all together.
Problems are two fold. When market makers and their friends decide on a rally they will distort all older chart patterns. secondly they propagate and control flow of all finacial news ( notice the paucity of bad news now ). During rally they filter or modify bad news and vice versa. Only thing that may work in favor of small fry like us is TIME. They can not achieve their gaols in a short period as you see last decline and rally have taken about two months. Hardest thing for us is to be patient and go along with a simple system buy the dips in up move and sell the tips in decline with taking profits along the way. Again the problem is we are too connected to the news and as such become victims of Psycho warfare. Our ego tells us yes we have the correct infomation without realization we are being manipulated.
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