Monday, May 04, 2009 1:22:57 PM
1:22 pm $NYA chart:
I am carefully building short positions here. Not expecting to make a lot. Being cautious because price can walk right up that top channel line for a few days--or explode up in a blowoff. Shorting here is chancy, but controlled chancy, especially if done in small bites.
Notice how cleanly the rules regarding the 20-day ma worked on this chart (post 72). [20-day ma is green, dashed line.] Will make the rules more clear and specific in coming days. Also, it's not always this easy! So what? The market is not a handout. It is noisy, mostly chaotic. Then occasionally, magically, the moving averages turn HARMONIOUS UP (a bull market) or HARMONIOUS DOWN (a shorting market).
The 20-day is like the heart of a tree. It is where the life is. Look at how the 20-day flowed right in and through the resistance that seemed insurmountable just after April 1. My analysis suggested today's high-water mark back then. The trick to investing is to forget about gravity (which makes you believe price is going to fall any split second and to focus instead on the life force. You want to own the life--when price is above the 20-day.)
I am carefully building short positions here. Not expecting to make a lot. Being cautious because price can walk right up that top channel line for a few days--or explode up in a blowoff. Shorting here is chancy, but controlled chancy, especially if done in small bites.
Notice how cleanly the rules regarding the 20-day ma worked on this chart (post 72). [20-day ma is green, dashed line.] Will make the rules more clear and specific in coming days. Also, it's not always this easy! So what? The market is not a handout. It is noisy, mostly chaotic. Then occasionally, magically, the moving averages turn HARMONIOUS UP (a bull market) or HARMONIOUS DOWN (a shorting market).
The 20-day is like the heart of a tree. It is where the life is. Look at how the 20-day flowed right in and through the resistance that seemed insurmountable just after April 1. My analysis suggested today's high-water mark back then. The trick to investing is to forget about gravity (which makes you believe price is going to fall any split second and to focus instead on the life force. You want to own the life--when price is above the 20-day.)
Strip price to the barest data that tells us BUY, HOLD, or SELL.
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