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Re: ZoZoStockWatch post# 66

Monday, 05/04/2009 12:18:23 PM

Monday, May 04, 2009 12:18:23 PM

Post# of 185
Land, The Tunnel. A few general comments. The guy makes excellent points, and if he makes money with this (I'm sure he does), that's great!

First, when I use the 10, 20, 50, 75, 100, 150, and 200 ma's, I do so with great flexibility. I will often adjust them around to see if it tells me anything useful. So when I say 10, for example, I mean anything between 8 to 12. Same is true of all the ma's, the way I use them. I have found no practical advantage of ema's. I'm not opposed to them whatsoever--just no advantage seen.

Second, I'm not seeing the distinct advantage of the The Tunnel method. Looking at a 1-year chart of the $SPX using my boring ma's versus the 12, 144, 169 paradigm, the latter does not turn on any bright shining lights.

Third, the author wrote: "Everyone should know that all moving averages are lagging indicators. It makes no difference the type, they all lag. Only after the fact can they tell you the market has turned."

While this is partly true, in the end, I disagree strongly. There is a way to use ma's that produces consistent returns. I'm not trying to make *perfect* entries and exits--just reliably consistent ones, and in my opinion, ma's provide us with outstanding signals, real-time signals. You have to know how to use them, and I will be making that abundantly clear soon enough. I have laid out the basics.

Here's the thing about ma's. They always tell us what is really going on in the market--apart from anyone's opinion or guess or bias. Manipulation or no manipulation, tricks or traps, the ma's show me. I will clarify all this piece by tiny piece.

There are two major reason traders are making big mistakes: 1) They have the wrong model. 2) They are flooding the brain with too much information--especially too much IFFY information. The decision-making brain (imperfect at best) now is overwhelmed to the point that stats are virtually guaranteed to fall below 70 percent.

When I read the The Tunnel Method, I can feel my brain getting overwhelmed again by too much iffy information. What we want to see stats over 70 percent is the simplest understanding that provides us *everything* we need to know to achieve profitable returns.

This is just my first impression.

What I've noticed among investors and TA types is that they want to appear sophisticated, use fancy terms, and so on. You will find my methods are not that.

I want an understanding of the market a computer can comprehend with high reliability. If it needs to be complicated, so be it. I've discovered it doesn't. The complex understandings are confusing us and leading to wasted time and cash.

Ted

Strip price to the barest data that tells us BUY, HOLD, or SELL.

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