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Re: None

Sunday, 05/03/2009 4:17:40 PM

Sunday, May 03, 2009 4:17:40 PM

Post# of 185
So both the Knowlege pile and the Iffy Clues pile can be divided into two categories:

1) Descriptors (e.g., price above or below the 20-day ma)

and

2) Predictive Indicators (e.g., price crossing offset midpoint average to give a cycle high projection).

We're not absolutely sure yet the latter even exists--as Knowledge. ;) It might but it will be tough to prove because sometimes things appear predictive but are not. There is a logical fallacy that describes this problem (Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc, after this therefore because of this). We want to make sure we are identifying something that is truly causal or descriptive or predictive--not just an accident that happens occasionally--as in half the time.

Anyway, I want to make a real search for predictive indicators because if they're practical, we want them in our Knowledge toolbox. If they don't work reliably, then we want to put them in our Iffy pile.

Strip price to the barest data that tells us BUY, HOLD, or SELL.

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