Thursday, April 30, 2009 3:08:14 PM
Good post (quite comprehensive... I want to add some discussion, okay?).
the FED saw "green shoots" over a month ago. GDP was predicted at around -4.75 it came in at -6.1.
Possibly these were green 'stubbles' rather than shoots? There are 2 more revisions (this is the 1st of 3). Which way do you think they'll go? Look at this pattern and HOW MUCH will be necessary to change the course (remember that the there are two more revisions coming).
The rush to refi will disappear as quickly as it appeared, interest rates will have to rise as those "green shoots" grow Don't the Alt-A loans start resetting next? Won't there be a problem akin to the sub-prime problem?
Having said all that the market could add another 20%. That's what WS insiders want. They probably also want the 30-40% correction because they'll be the first out at the top Yes, WS wants an advance of 20-30%. That's the ONLY place that they can make money by just flappin' their lips & hyping folks into letting cash out of their wallets. And, yes, they want the 30-40% decline thereafter because they will have shorted the market & made (stole) money on the way up AND the way down. I just don't want to get in the way of that!
The good news; 4th quarter earnings comps will be a cake walk. If the Bull market hasn't resumed by then I'll be surprised. In my opinion that will be the real start.
Great point on the qtr-to-qtr comparisons. That puts us in an happier mood in Q1'10, no? And, if consumers were tapped-out last year (remember, Q4 had nearly 1/2 of the job losses from the period Oct'07 thru Dec'08), then what will it be like Q4'09 when 6,000,000 of this years current 'drawing' unemployed have months & months of financial wreckage coming into Q4'09? ... much less buy the Christmas season? I really think alot about this... it takes a family over a year to bounce back from 3 months without employment income. Yes, unemployment can put food on the table, but employment income pays for every other family obligation. This puts the family in a 'raise cash' mode. How can we possibly have a good Q4 for the consumer? Do you think the improved Q4 would be service industry... or manufacturing?
the FED saw "green shoots" over a month ago. GDP was predicted at around -4.75 it came in at -6.1.
Possibly these were green 'stubbles' rather than shoots? There are 2 more revisions (this is the 1st of 3). Which way do you think they'll go? Look at this pattern and HOW MUCH will be necessary to change the course (remember that the there are two more revisions coming).
The rush to refi will disappear as quickly as it appeared, interest rates will have to rise as those "green shoots" grow Don't the Alt-A loans start resetting next? Won't there be a problem akin to the sub-prime problem?
Having said all that the market could add another 20%. That's what WS insiders want. They probably also want the 30-40% correction because they'll be the first out at the top Yes, WS wants an advance of 20-30%. That's the ONLY place that they can make money by just flappin' their lips & hyping folks into letting cash out of their wallets. And, yes, they want the 30-40% decline thereafter because they will have shorted the market & made (stole) money on the way up AND the way down. I just don't want to get in the way of that!
The good news; 4th quarter earnings comps will be a cake walk. If the Bull market hasn't resumed by then I'll be surprised. In my opinion that will be the real start.
Great point on the qtr-to-qtr comparisons. That puts us in an happier mood in Q1'10, no? And, if consumers were tapped-out last year (remember, Q4 had nearly 1/2 of the job losses from the period Oct'07 thru Dec'08), then what will it be like Q4'09 when 6,000,000 of this years current 'drawing' unemployed have months & months of financial wreckage coming into Q4'09? ... much less buy the Christmas season? I really think alot about this... it takes a family over a year to bounce back from 3 months without employment income. Yes, unemployment can put food on the table, but employment income pays for every other family obligation. This puts the family in a 'raise cash' mode. How can we possibly have a good Q4 for the consumer? Do you think the improved Q4 would be service industry... or manufacturing?
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