That's it! I'm through! This stock is a POS!!
That's what I said about Qualcom in the 1990s. I had a SIZEABLE option position anticipating the conversion to QCOM's tech by (then) PacBell. PRs by the company and conversations with management left me confident of the future.
For whatever reason, that adoption was delayed and my options expired worthless. I made the mistake of calculating what they would have been worth had the deal hit before expiry, and given my strike prices (and several hundred contracts) it was about $4 million dollars.
I mention this story only because it reminds me that sometimes managements' best estimates can be unexpectedly impacted by external events, yet some ignore that and blame management as being inept, deceitful, etc. I don't believe anyone anticipated the Grantsdale recall or the slow pace of the industry-wide TPM educational process.
I recall many of the posts on RB last year about the company giving away stock at $1.90. Now, many are left wishing they would have doubled the size of that deal. If I remember correctly, some of the accredited investors received only half their allotment. Some wavoids were absolutely indignant at the fact they were "excluded," didn't receive special treatment, or the right of first refusal, in that PP. Others were concerned that SKS took us right to the cliff's edge before concluding that deal. "Wow, what a close call" as I remember someone posting.
With the stock at these low levels, NOBODY is going to be happy about ANYTHING. Those worried about cash are now pissed it was done at this year's low. You can't do a PP at $4 when your stock is $1. I think SSP should have been sold first, but that's another argument. SKS doesn't control the market price, so what else can we consider?
TPMs - forecasts have been significantly raised for 2004 and beyond. The latest forecast indicates well over 20 million.
MSFT - Wave will be THE services company in the TCG space. Nobody will allow MSFT to dominate the OS and security. New services are being written and will soon be introduced.
Homeland Security - deals are imminent, imo.
Dell - will shortly join the TPM bandwagon.
Re-sellers - are working their sales teams. Enterprise-sized deals should be announced over the next two quarters.
I believe the business has turned the quarter, but I don't expect much from Q2, which should be announced Aug 12. I'm still looking for the incremental uptick in Q3, Q4, YE2005, YE2006.
And, at that time, I believe this latest round's uproar will be about as relevant as our delisting several years ago.
I'm not an apologist; I'm not a pumper. This is just how I see it. Moral of my post: don't buy options.
