We have to touch ground and get ready for long holding....
I am with WaS as well as other posters whose position is not pesimistic or similar ... it's just that life is about expectations and setting them too high in terms of assuring that everything will be settled in some days is risky...
Too high expectations can generate bad decisions based on despair...
By today I am more confident than ever that this is one opportunity in a lifetime, that there are almost zero possibilities of commons getting wiped out, etc .. etc..
- The FDIC is is the hook
- the cash is there
- A/L was ok even with so many assets counting as zero (undeterminded value)
- the NOL is going to be worth some $B ( more or less but some)
- the long term bondholders have good reasons in today's market to accept a % of face value ( only this factor would unbalance in our favor the A/L)
- WMI has cash to support long term litigation and to wait and sell its assets in due time when the value is what they are worth
- The Big Holders are still there and holding not just prefereds but also tons of commons
... but all this may require time to mature ... we are protected under BK with a judge that knows what she does, with good lawyers, a new administration, etc.....
....... again ...all this will take time to mature and produce results...
In the mean time at current pps the company value is just ridiculous ( about $60M aprox.) compared with what is at stake ...
All these aspects are positive from my point of view and reinforce my idea that this is a great investment opportunity ... over time.
.... AND NOW, AS EXCELLENT ADDITIONAL AND VERY LIKELY POSITIVE NEWS ... it seems that the delay to confirm the exclusivity in the court LOOKS LIKE A CLEAR SIGN THAT THERE IS SETTLEMENT AGREED AND THAT THIS WILL BE COMUNICATED IN A FEW DAYS ....
.... this is great!!, this is perfectly articulated by bopfan and many of you, .... and nowbody would be happier than me if you are right ...
... but if not, if for whatever the reason WMI asks for further extension of exclusivity or if any other apparent bump in the road shows up these days ... THE BASICS ARGUMENTS WILL STILL BE THERE AND WILL NOT CHANGE
... so I would rather keep my expectations as positive as always but also assuming that this is a long position ...
I will avoid eventual frustrations and wrong decision making out of unfounded despair ... and if everything gets bright in just some days ... I will be even more delighted...
... dicovering that you can fly when you are on the ground is great ... discovering that you cannot fly once you are in the air is pretty tough...!! ...
AI
