InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[Desert dweller]

I found what is probably a very reasonable estimate of sales from Tom Carpentar's report for sales 2008 - 2012. This does not include sales for 2006 and 2007 but gives me a good idea of what to look for. Here are Tom's estimates for 3g phones by Samsung:

2008.....68 million
2009.....87 million
2010....113 million
2011....148 million
2012....184 million

Total.. 600 million for 2008 - 2012.

In addition I would guess that you could add in another 100 million total for 2006 and 2007 for total 3g handset shipments for Samsung and you are looking at an estimated 700 million 3g handsets to be shipped by Sammy for the period April, 2006 thru Dec 2012. Now you can apply whatever rate you want to for 3g plus the 2g arbitration award to come up with what you think is reasonable for a settlement to see for this week. By any measure the amount we should see announced this week or next as a settlement whether it is Tom Carpentar's low estimate, Data Rox estimate of around a buck a phone or Mickey's dream world estimate and there is a huge amount. Even splitting TC's and DR's estimate and using $.75/phone plus 2g and the amount will move the stock a lot IMO.

Hopefully the settlement is at least Data's estimate of about a buck a phone based on what I think would be a reasonable settlement where Sammy pays only for phones over the same time period that Nokia has to pay beginning April, 2006 and forward and then we should see the stock rise nicely after the announcement instead of a buy on the rumor/expectation then sell on the news. My guess is anything around $500 million and the stock stays around where it is at or drops a little since that will be the low end of what would be expected. Higher than that and we should move higher; IMO depending on how much higher the settlement is than my low end guess of $500 million, will determine how much higher we go.

All JMO but personally I am hoping for at least $700 million thru 2012 which I think would move the stock substantially higher than where we are currently at and I don't think that would be considered pie in the sky dreaming. To me a buck a phone for 3g based on 700 million estimated units plus the money owed for 2g based on the arbitration award less some discount and then it will really rocket. All just one person's guess and I don't think we have to wait much longer. To me we are overdue for the details.

Thoughts/comments?

Link to TC's report from 11/08, page 4 is where I got the estimated sales figures for 2008 - 2012. Over the same 2008-2012 time period Nokia is expected to sell 983 million 3g units according to TC. Add in another 125 million or so units (my WAG) for 4/06 - 12/07 and they will owe on over 1.1 billion phones for the same period. Can you say WOW and I don't mean iWOW either.

http://wirelessledger.com/idccNov262008.pdf