That is about the way I see it too.
Problems have simply compounded to be too large to ignore and put off for another year. GM will have to take the cure of bankruptcy. There is no way to renegotiate all of their relationships in 90 days.
The disaster that is not getting much attention at all are the US public pension funds. Almost all are in terrible shape. New Jersey and Illinois are about the worst ones. So we have a decline in asset values, increasing benefit payments and promises, that they will try to fund with higher taxes, on people who are not employed. How it works out will be a dry run for Social Security workover. All of the calls for safe muni bond investments could look pretty silly in just 12 or 24 months. If the defaults start there will be no Safe munis.
We currently have a pretty strong rally going on. Watch the $VIX. It is currently declining from darned high levels. As long as it is declining it is making options cheaper and is also reflecting less fear as the market is going up. When that 10 da avg turns up again, buy some 10% OTM leap puts with about 5% of your port. If problems are solved you should not suffer too big a loss when you sell them. If things GTH, you will maybe make 5 X your money and recover some of your losses.
Just my recommendation for a way to avoid one Black Swan.
AI
