The challenge is to come up with something for an investment which gives a reliable positive return and without correlation to the stock market or US economy. Then find several of those which are not correlated with each other.
I would not really think that Taleb would call a stockmarket decline as a Black Swan. The cause of it, imploding major banks, might qqualify.
Further, I don't believe a buy on the decline method will not offer much protection from the Taleb style Black Swan. His recommendation is to buy very cheap mispriced insurance against the Black Swan events in order to directly profit from them. That will be generally unprofitable on a daily basis and probably for many years running.
Consider how you would have responded to a suggestion, made two years ago, that economic conditions would change so that GE would not be able to roll over its debt without a govt. guarantee. Or look at how AIM would have done with GE as the security being used as it declined from $40 plus to $15. I'm not trying to pick on GE, BTW. But, not being wiped out yet does not mean that it won't be in another year. There are any number of possible country defaults that are now possible, on the order of investments in Iceland.
When you have finished the book I expect that your thoughts on possible Black Swans will be changed.
AI
