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Re: None

Friday, 12/19/2008 4:29:34 PM

Friday, December 19, 2008 4:29:34 PM

Post# of 771
A REAL LIFE EXAMPLE...

... of the problem with Top-40 by Return vs Top-40 by Rank. This is not meant to be pro Wyobuford or anti Echos, but it makes the point.

The worst two contests were PSL9 (-12%) and PSL10 (-41%). Obviously, if you were fortunate enough to miss those two contests, your return would be disproportionately HIGHER. Echos missed PSL9 and PSL10. Thus, he is 5th in return, but 31st in rank.

On the other hand, the two best contests were PSL1 (+28%) and PSL2 (+26%). Obviously, if you missed those two contests, your return would be disproportionately LOWER. Unfortunately, for Wyobuford, he missed PSL1 and PSL2. Thus, he is 28th in return, but 3rd in rank.

Since the number of contestants has not changed much from contest to contest, it is clear that a list with Echos 5th and Wyobuford 28th as opposed to Wyobuford 3rd and Echos 31st is fatally flawed.

Len


Warren Buffet: 5 minutes and 17 seconds of pure, unadulterated, bulletproof, flawless logic.



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