Ellismd - a very good analysis
I think it is quite reasonable, not optimistic or conservative. I was about to do a similar post but yours is almost the same. I am thinking that Samsung, Nokia and Sony/Ericssom should be done by Q4 2009.
A couple of minor points. Add $10 -$20 dollars a share for cash on hand, depending on the amounts of prepayments and 2G. I wouldn't assume the expense reduction for legal costs as I'm sure a company flush with funds and success will have other expenses rise.
To be conservative, cut your $5 per share in half and use an ultra consevative estimate of a 10 PE and you have a $25 share price.
So what I see here is a stock that, with mediocre execution, should be selling for $40 - $50 per share within two years. With decent to good agreements, the Houston 100 will be a reality within that time frame. (Aside to Ed F, you had a "gut" feeling of no good news, which, if correct, would've caused IDCC to fall 50% or more, yet after you're rendered "gutless" by the results, you have the audacity to post about how you sold your investments in September except for this little stock that you have consistently belittled. So are a liar or an idiot?)
So what does this all mean to me as an investor? I've gone to 110% invested in IDCC, using margin. I see very limited downside risk, good to great upside. The current weakness in the overall market, combined with the street's lack of respect for IDCC's future prospects, and possibly some manipulation by the shorts to exit ahead of the run has given everyone one last (I hope) fantastic buying opportunity. So my advice is to take any dry powder and buy now. I do not recommend going on margin or buying options as delays and volatility can result in you being right and still losing. For those of us that have been compulsively following this stock for years, this is the opportunity. We understand what the company has, what the risks are, the potential rewards. Now is chance to put all that DD to work.
No need to wish everyone luck. When you study, analyze and take action on your knowledge, success will follow. 2009 will be IDCC's "next year" that we've all been waiting for.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
