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Wednesday, November 26, 2008 4:35:10 AM
Its clear and obvious the legal need to show details of any item in the books before formally claiming ownership of any asset or liability .... and as you very well said ... this will take time.
however ... it's difficult for me to belive that by today all parties - except maybe the creditors - do not have a fairly good vision of the general picture of what major assets and what major liabilities belong to whom.
I say this because even in these turbulent days, things do not change overnight. I mean WM board, its audtors and likely the banking and stock exchange regulators are supposed to have been receiving and analizing regularily details of WM holding, WM Bank and even most critical subsidiaries.
Any of these entities - subsidisries included - are supposed to have a governance model that until the day of the seizure should have given transparency to their investors, suppliers, taxes andministration and other regulators.
Specifically and based on all those presvious flows of information, I just cannot imaging that the main stakeholders in this billionare gamble don't have yet figured out a fairly accurate picture of the WMI and WMB financial situation.
Even considering items potentially subject to future litigation, by today they likely have a best-to-worst case scenarios for both entities: WMI and WMB.
Why I think this is relevant?
Because this "scenarios" based picture may be good enough to figure out values for possible buyout or even "buy-in-by-TPG" negotiations. Or at least good enough to asses if there is or there isn't a viable future for WMI.
My perception is that the fact that these constant delays - specially about the 4.4B - did not generate a major sell offs by some major WMI owners shows that they play with scenarios that are good for WMI future.
I do not relate this with the positive pps evolution (low volume) of these two last days - likely driven by general market mood.
But I relate this perception on the fact that pps hasn't just dived abruptly with large volume when the the last 4.4b delay was announced.
I foresee good days for flippers ( ups & downs in pps) but I expect strong owners to hold tight their shares.
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