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Wednesday, 10/22/2008 8:05:47 PM

Wednesday, October 22, 2008 8:05:47 PM

Post# of 37472
I meant a low in 2010-2011, I am not a chart follower that much, but I have always confronted those who say the dow goes up on average, so you need to be in the market. If you look at the dow charts from the late 1800s to present and straight line them, only the high error band has the dow around 14000-15000 by now. The middle line has it around 7000-8000. So right now, we are were we should be by the true chart followers.

BUT- and a big one, there is a problem with investing for the long run. WHY – because in the long run we are all DEAD!

If you look at the same dow charts more closely, you will see that from 1905-1924, the dow essentially went nowhere. In 1905 it was around 100 and 19 YEARS later in 1924 it was at 100. From 1924 to 1928 we had a bull market. I am talking stocks here, not commodities or tulips. In the 26 YEARS from 1928 to 1954, it also went nowhere! Then we had a bull market from 1954 to 1965. The for 17 YEARS from 1965 to 1982 it went NOWHERE! From 1982 to 2000 we had the longest bull market in history. It is likely we are in the next ‘secular bear market phase’ that started in 2000 around a dow of 11000. Typically these last about 17 years. That makes the next bull market phase likely to begin around 2015-2019. Now is a period to be averaging in if you are young enough. But if you do not have the time for a long term (too bad we get old a lot faster that you think is possible), you have to try and time the bottom. I think that will be in the 2010-2011 timeframe. I am holding most of what I have left in cash until late 2009-2010, then I will start averaging in.

In 30 years of investing, I have managed to only loose. I lost about $150,000, not of lost gains, but lost money I dug out of the ground with hard work.

I think if I have some in BNPD, it looks like it may be a start up that actually had some planning to it. If you know anything about product development and roll-out stage-gating, it looks like these guys did a good job. Even though I think it will be a 10 banger from here within the next year, I am holding to my plan not to take my last bit of life savings cash that I need at my age for security until I see the bottom in the overall markets I think is coming. We have a storm coming. You have not truly seen turmoil yet.

Above all, in the meantime, regardless of what happens, enjoy each and every moment in this life that you can. Remember that everything you own, owns you to some extent. Know that we can make ourselves wealthy by keeping our needs few.

Best of luck to all. See photo below, I love my Tabasco peppers and my Bionic Tonic. Munch a Tabasco and drink a Bionic, that will put a fire under your butt for sure!!