InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[j70k]

If a reasonable assumption can be made that the eventual outcome of this saga is settlement, then the major question becomes when. We have our first time threshold coming up on Nov 25th with 5 possible outcomes pre announcement:(1)only Sam settles(2)only Nok settles(3)both Sam and Nok settle(4)neither party settles(5)a white knight appears with a bid for IDCC and the proceedings are put on hold. What is the most probable outcome of the five above and why? First, lets look at number 4 and the probability that neither settles and what ramifications and risks are associated with this decision. All three parties now have a pretty good risk profile as to what the ALJ will decide. Obviously, if Sam feels that the ALJ will side with them, then they will let the decision be rendered. This, however, has a direct effect on Nok, in that if the decision goes against them, Nok's bargaining position is weakened with the stigma of infringement by proxy being a matter of public record. The point is, that the risk profile changes drastically for one or more parties post announcement. Looking at number 1,only Sam settling before the announcement, we still have the problem of dealing with Nok without the benefit of a favorable ALJ ruling, which we may feel very good about. Number 2 makes sense only if Nok makes an 11th hour offer that is designed to put their chief competitor behind the infringement eight ball. Number 5 is for conspiracy theorists that believe that the Qcom/Nok settlement contained an incentive for Qcom to come to their rescue at the final moment. Number 3 presents a win situation for all parties(including the ITC)involved. How do both parties agree to a settlement before Nov 25th? If Sam and Nok presented a reasonable rate to IDCC on the basis of a one time offer of BOTH signing pre Nov 25th, I would think that a deal could be made. JMO